FINAL PREDICTIONS...ALL CATEGORIES...OSCARS 2010

That time of year has come again, time for the madness that is the Academy Award nominations. After much analyzing, deliberating, and generally non-sleeping, I have narrowed down my choices in 21 categories for this year's Oscars. Below you'll find a category by category breakdown, with analysis for each.

As always, I've included my predictions for the nominees, as well as a few alternate choices in each category. Last year, including alternates, I had 86/101 predictions correct. I'm just hoping to get anywhere remotely near that number this year, and won't be surprised if I don't, as many of the races feel much more wide open to me than previous years. I also included the Documentary Feature category this year. It could help, or could come back and bite me. We'll see.

For several of the actors, it's not so much even "who", as "where", as category confusion could make it difficult for several performers. Some years it doesn't matter, and some years it leads to a big snub. For the likes of performers like Hailee Steinfeld, Geoffrey Rush, & Lesley Manville, we'll have to see what happens.

There is a lot of following the precursor awards, whether it be the Guilds, Globes, Critics Choice, Bafta, various other critics, or other groups, thrown in with more than my share of sheer guesswork. But after all the thinking, prognasticating, and number crunching, it's time for Oscar to speak.

So without further ado, my predictions for the 2010 Academy Award nominations are....

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
This is the first year I've ever included the Doc category in my predictions. I would be extremely shocked if either Job or Superman didn't end up in the final cut. I also have to go with the critic favorite Gift Shop. In the aftermath of The Hurt Locker last year, I think Restrepo will also catch the viewers with an interest in the war. The final choice for me was really between Tillman Story & Client 9. Having seen them both, I can see either of them taking it. But then again there are 15 finalists in this category, so who knows. I may end up missing a whole bunch of these.

Predictions
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waiting for Superman

Alternates
Precious Life
The Tillman Story


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The list of the 9 finalist films was released about a week ago, with some glaring omissions left off. That said, these are the films we have to work with. I think that Incendies and Biutiful have the best chance out of any of these. Dogtooth is so different from anything the Academy usually goes for, but the fact that it was even on the finalist list shows that it has supporters, so I'm including it here, although I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see it left off. The rest is really a crap shoot for me, having seen only the trailers for most of the other films here.

Predictions
Canada -- "Incendies"
Denmark -- "In a Better World"
Greece -- "Dogtooth"
Mexico -- "Biutiful"
South Africa -- "Life, Above All"

Alternates
Algeria -- "Hors la Loi (Outside the Law)"
Japan -- "Confessions"


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
We like to pretend like we know what's going to happen in this category, but the truth is that in the last 5 years or so, the choices for Song have gone so randomly that we really don't know. Even songs that win big, big precursor awards have absolutely no definite chance of being nominated here. That said, I think the songs that have the best chance to show up here would be "I See the Light", "Shine", & "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me." If there is a place where they Academy is going to go for Burlesque, it'll be in either costumes or here. The main reason for most of these picks is sheer starpower behind the writers and performers.

Predictions
"I See the Light" -- Tangled
"If I Rise" -- 127 Hours
"Shine" -- Waiting for Superman
"We Belong Together" -- Toy Story 3
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" -- Burlesque

Alternates
"Coming Home" -- Country Strong
"Sticks and Stones" -- How to Train Your Dragon


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Social Network has cleaned up several big awards already, and since it wasn't deemed ineligible, I expect it here. The same is said for Hans Zimmer's score for Inception. Danny Elfman should expect a nod for his score to Alice in Wonderland as well. I think the King's Speech will be swept up in an across-the-board nomination tally for the film, not to mention the score is quite lovely. And while the Academy might go for Slumdog Millionaire A.R. Rahman for his score to 127 Hours, or if they need a dose of Alexandre Desplat, (doesn't everyone), they could go for his wonderfully tense score for Ghost Writer, I think the one of the most beautiful and noticeable scores of the year come from the mind of John Powell for How to Train Your Dragon. The flying scenes alone are worthy of a nod here.

Predictions
Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Alternates
127 Hours
The Ghost Writer


BEST MAKEUP
The finalist list of 7 chosen by the Academy is a true mish-mash of work. The makeup branch isn't afraid to nominated...(clears throat)...bad films. (Norbit? Really???) And while I don't think it reaches that level, even Jonah Hex has a shot here. The clear frontrunner is Alice in Wonderland, a film where noticable makeup touches every single live-action character. Since they went with the boxing work of Cinderella Man back in 05, I expect them to follow suit with The Fighter. And while I have a strange feeling that they're going to go with the aging makeup of Barney's Version, or the creature work of The Wolfman (the film's 1 real chance at any sort of praise), I'm predicting the period work of True Grit in the last position.

Predictions
Alice in Wonderland
The Fighter
True Grit

Alternates
Barney's Version
The Wolfman


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
For the first time since 1979, the nominee list will include 5 films instead of 3. Alice, Inception, Tron, I would all consider locks. The 1 film I'm really hoping pulling for here is Scott Pilgrim. The effects are so different and stylized, so unlike the choices they usually pick, which is one reason I'm so behind it. Well that, and that I loved the film.

Predictions
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
TRON: Legacy

Alternates
Hereafter
Iron Man 2


BEST SOUND EDITING
Last year the choices in the sound categories matched decently close to each other, and I expect this year will be very similar. I'm expecting Black Swan, Inception, and True Grit to find their way into back categories. And while Pixar has an insanely good track record in the sound categories, I'm pulling for the work in How to Train Your Dragon instead. The soundscape of The Social Network is a perfect balance of score, dialogue, and noise, and should deservedly find a home in the mixing category. And since the CAS included Shutter Island in their choices, I'm including it here as well.

Predictions
127 Hours
Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
True Grit

Alternates
Iron Man 2
Unstoppable


BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit

Alternates
127 Hours
The King's Speech


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
I'm pretty sure about 3/5 of these. Alice, King's Speech, and True Grit are all running pretty safe. The work in Black Swan is memorable, but some may argue that it's not more than average ballet & theater costuming, which can be argued as a valid point. Sandy Powell's work in The Tempest is nod-worthy, but how many voters ever put that dvd in their players? If there is any other spot besides song where the lavish, over-the-top work of Burlesque will be mentioned, it'll be here.

Predictions
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King's Speech
True Grit

Alternates
Made in Dagenham
The Tempest


BEST ART DIRECTION
These year was a particularly strong year in film design, in my opinion. Many deserving films will be left of the floor. In this category, "more" is often thought of as "best", and if that's the case, then Alice in Wonderland should land a nod easily. The design of Inception is critical to the film's plot, and will also land here. The period works of True Grit and King's Speech also look strong. And while Stuart Craig has found his name called before, and Academy favorite Dante Ferretti's work in Shutter Island is more than worthy, I think the theater world of Black Swan will win another of it's many nods here.

Predictions
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Alternates
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1
Shutter Island


BEST FILM EDITING
Always one of the most competitive categories, and one that often matches up quite closely with the Best Picture nominees. This year, I'm going with 4/5 matching up, and the quick cutting and fast pacing of 127 Hours to earn a nod alongside, in my mind, what are the 4 true front-runners for Best Picture. Cinderella Man also earned a nod here, so The Fighter showing up is a real possibility also. My dream-nomination? Scott Pilgrim. But it's not happening.

Predictions
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Alternates
The Fighter
True Grit


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My favorite tech category. This is another category where I'm pretty secure in about 3/4 of my choices. I can't see Swan, Inception, or Grit missing out. The Social Network missed at the BAFTAs, but landed with the ASC, so it should pick up a nod here to add to it's growing total. And in another nominee tidal wave, The King's Speech will add to it's total with it's understated camera work. The only real spoiler I see is 127 Hours, which would absolutely deserve a nod here if it receives one. Fantastic camera work. Would also love to see a nod for Harry Potter, a la with the last film, but the buzz on it seems to have died down a while ago, even if it is deserved.

Predictions
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Alternates
127 Hours
Shutter Island


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
We're back to 3 nominees this year, as 1 too few fils were submitted to bump this category back up to 5 choices. Btw, that is one of the stupedist rules ever. Films should not be judged by an arbitrary number of choices, but by quality. There are easily 5 films that deserve a spot here. That said, Dragon & Toy Story are locked. The 3 spot is in a serious 3-way competition. Despicable Me seems to be in the lead, with it's PGA and BAFTA nods, and the critic love for The Illusionist is strong. But I'm going with my gut and staying with Disney's Tangled, the latest out of the mouse house. After all, we gotta try to keep at least 1 semi-traditional non-CG film in here, right? Right? RIGHT??? I have no idea.

Predictions
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3

Alternates
Despicable Me
The Illusionist


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
This race should be called "Aaron Sorkin and the 4 other writers", but since we gotta have 5 nominees, here we are. Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufooy might find a consolation nod here for 127 Hours, and the Coens should score for their True Grit script. Toy Story 3 is deemed as adapted, and the last 3 Pixar films have all shown up in the writing categories, so check one spot off there. And while I would prefer the twists of Ghost Writer or strong dialogue of The Town (nod for Affleck too), I'm predicting that the backwoods drama of Winter's Bone will find it's way onto the nomination checklist.

Predictions
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Alternates
The Ghost Writer
The Town


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
There are really only 7 scripts in true running here, unless we have a total surprise come Tuesday morning. Inception, Kids, and King's Speech are all locked. And since the writers admire tackling a tough subject, Blue Valentine could earn a nod here. Same be said for Mike Leigh's newest, Another Year. I swear that man gets nominated for others people's words far too much. I'm going with the 2 films I'm predicting will also be up for Best Picture, Black Swan & The Fighter, to fill the final spots.

Predictions
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Alternates
Another Year
Blue Valentine


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The ladies from The Fighter and Bonham Carter are all pretty close to being locks. Kunis was the big surprise of the awards season this year, but deserved, and after a Globe and a SAG nod, she should hear her named called as well. The big question is young Miss Steinfeld. Is it a supporting performance? No. It's a lead. But this is where she's being campaigned, and even tho the BAFTA's nominated her as a lead actress, I think she will still find a home in this category.

Predictions
Amy Adams "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter "The King's Speech"
Mila Kunis "Black Swan"
Melissa Leo "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld "True Grit"

Alternates
Barbara Hershey "Black Swan"
Jackie Weaver "Animal Kingdom"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale should already start preparing his speech, as he will not only earn his first nod (FINALLY!), but is the clear front-runner for the win. Geoffrey Rush is in all truth a 2nd lead in King's Speech, but he'd lose to Colin Firth, so the studio wants him here. I'm fine with that I guess. Ruffalo should also earn his first (again FINALLY) nomination for his work in The Kids Are All Right. And followed his masterful lead role in Hurt Locker last year, Jeremy Renner plays the most memorable role in The Town. He was chosen for a SAG nod, good sign there. And finally, the young new Spider-Man, Andrew Garfield, should also here his name called, as his Eduardo is one of the most understated and wonderful performances of the year, in The Social Network. In a perfect world, I hear John Hawkes' name called out. He was the best part of Winter's Bone for me.

Predictions
Christian Bale "The Fighter"
Andrew Garfield "The Social Network"
Jeremy Renner "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush "The King's Speech"

Alternates
John Hawkes "Winter's Bone"
Sam Rockwell "Conviction"


BEST ACTRESS
Bening, Lawrence, & Portman should all feel pretty secure in their chances. And after nods from the Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG, Nicole Kidman should as well. The big question is spot number 5. Noomi Rapace could shock like she did at the BAFTAs and show up for her work in Dragon Tattoo. Hailee Steinfeld might earn more votes here than in the supporting category. In my personal preference, Julianne Moore is called out instead of Bening. But Michelle Williams' work in Blue Valentine is devastating, and so strong that it's hard to not see it get noticed. She should earn her 2nd nomination.

Predictions
Annette Bening "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams "Blue Valentine"

Alternates
Julianne Moore "The Kids Are All Right"
Naomi Rapace "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"


BEST ACTOR
Like last year, I think this is one of the easier races to predict. I think Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth & Franco are all locked up. The final choice could go to Ryan Gosling if they love Blue Valentine. And several big name stars have pushed lately for Javier Bardem's work in Biutiful. Don't forget, he was nominated for a spanish role before, back in 2000 for Before Night Falls. But the Academy loves Robert Duvall. It's been years since his last nod, and he gives a great performance in Get Low. He picked up a SAG nod, and should score here as well.

Predictions
Jeff Bridges "True Grit"
Robert Duvall "Get Low"
Jesse Eisenberg "The Social Network"
Colin Firth "The King's Speech"
James Franco "127 Hours"

Alternates
Javier Bardem "Biutiful"
Ryan Gosling "Blue Valentine"


BEST DIRECTOR
This is more another choice of "who's the last one in" that "who will be left out". Fincher will earn his 2 nod in 3 years for Social Network. Tom Hooper will get a nod for one of the front-runner films. The Academy loves the Coens, especially since about 1/2 the acting branch has worked with them at one point or another. Aronofsky should finally earn an overdue nod, which is strange to say since he's made so few films. And Christopher Nolan, the man snubbed for Memento, and especially The Dark Knight, will finally receive the title of "Academy Award Nominated Director." Let it be the first of many for him. But don't count out David O. Russell, who's "The Fighter" has leveled many a contender in the way, and earned him a DGA nod. And if the Academy goes the way of 127 Hours, the way the BAFTA's did, you can expect that a nod for Danny Boyle could very possibly follow suit.

Predictions
Darren Aronofksy "Black Swan"
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen "True Grit"
David Fincher "The Social Network"
Tom Hooper "The King's Speech"
Christopher Nolan "Inception"

Alternates
Danny Boyle "127 Hours"
David O. Russell "The Fighter"


BEST PICTURE
Eight of these films feel like very safe choices. The truth to me is that there are really 11 films fighting for 10 spots, and the problem is, they all truly deserve it. The only films that I think are truly vulnerable here are The Town (great reviews, wonderful, released too soon???) & Winter's Bone (too gritty or independent???), either of which could be replaced by 127 Hours (but how many viewers even tried to watch it, knowing about "The Scene" in advance???). All the other contenders feel quite safe. Will we have another WTF shocker like The Blind Side popping up last year? We could. But I'm having a hard time seeing anything else but the top listed here + 127 Hours being called out. If it is included, then what goes? We'll find out in 2 1/2 days. Cheers!!!

Predictions
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Alternates
127 Hours
Another Year
The Ghost Writer
Shutter Island


Total I have Black Swan, The King's Speech, and True Grit all tallying 11 nominations, with Inception following with 10 and The Social Network with 9. I don't think in Academy history that 4 films that ever crossed the 10 nomination threshold, which is the main reason why I'm expecting to be wrong on a bunch of these.

Here are my other predicted films to receive at least 2 nods...

11
Black Swan
The King's Speech
True Grit

10
Inception

9
The Social Network

6
The Fighter

5
127 Hours
Alice in Wonderland

4
The Kids Are All Right
Toy Story 3

3
How to Train Your Dragon
Winter's Bone

2
Burlesque
Tangled
The Town
Waiting for Superman