FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

Best Animated Short Film
Should win: Presto
Will win: Presto

Best Live-Action Short Film
Should win: Auf Der Strecke (On the Line)
Will win: Spielzugland (Toyland)

Best Documentary Short Subject
Should win: The Conscience of Nhem En
Will win: The Conscience of Nhem En

Best Documentary Feature
Man on Wire was #7 on my top 10 list for 2008. It's a documentary that almost has more the feel of a great heist movie than anything else. The telling of the backstory is perfectly cut with the actual event, and there's nary a dull moment in the entire film.

Should win: Man on Wire
Will win: Man on Wire

Best Foreign Language Film
Not saying anything bad about any of the other nominees, but I sincerely hope Waltz With Bashir takes this. It is a groundbreaking film, comparitable to how Snow White, Toy Story, Shrek, or Waking Life were groundbreaking in the field of animation. However, the fact that it is animated is the only downfall that I can see for it, which is why I've gone with the also terrific French film "The Class" as my winner pick. Don't forget that the entire Academy doesn't vote in this category, only the special chosen committee. For the same reasons that films such as Amelie, Downfall, and Paradise Now ended up losing this award, I have to go with The Class. This category is rarely won by the fantastic film....more likely the best of the good ones.

Should win: Waltz With Bashir
Will win: The Class

Best Original Song
For "Down to Earth", Peter Gabriel got his first Oscar nomination, and including the nod for Best Original Score, Thomas Newman picked up his 10th here, and the man has NEVER won? That is ridiculous. However, "Jaiho" seems to be almost the theme of the awards season this year, so I have to go with that as my prediction. Remind me again how "The Wrestler" & "I Thought I Lost You" are not on this nominee list??????

Should win: "Down to Earth" -- Wall-E
Will win: "Jaiho" -- Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Score
Get the soundtrack to Wall-E. Right now. Go get it! Listen to the tracks "2815 A.D.", "Fixing Wall-E", and especially "Define Dancing", and then try to convince me that this score doesn't deserve to win. Still predicted Slumdog to win, but Wall-E, Benjamin Button, and Defiance are ALL better scores imo.

Should win: Wall-E
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Makeup
I very much admire the work in Benjamin Button. It was actually one of the main things that stuck out to me after viewing the film...WONDERFUL age makeup. But when put up again the originality of Hellboy, you just can't in good conscience say Hellboy doesn't deserve it. Still, with 13 nomination, Button is loved, and I think will pick this one up.

Should win: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Visual Effects
In all honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see The Dark Knight or Iron Man take this, but the effects of Benjamin Button are so seamlessly incorporated into the story that it's hard to argue against. Remind me against how Indiana Jones isn't here? The valley destruction scene alone is worthy of at least a nomination.
Should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Sound Editing
This is a tough call for me. Wall-E and The Dark Knight are 1 & 2 in this category for me, and depending on the day, could flip-flop for me as far as what I feel is deserving. But since The Incredibles was able to take this one back in 04, I wouldn't be surprised with a Wall-E win here. But then I watch the armored car chase in The Dark Knight, and I'm reminded why this film should win. Even Iron Man is very deserving. Basicaly, as long as Slumdog or Wanted don't win, I'm a happy camper here.

Should win: Wall-E
Will win: The Dark Knight

Best Sound
Not such to say here other than I'm sticking with my guns on The Dark Knight with this one, even though Slumdog took the CAS Guild Award for Best Sound. Will I be surprised if Slumdog wins here? No. Should it? Again, no.

Should win: The Dark Knight
Will win: The Dark Knight

Best Costume Design
The lavish and oppulent almost always prevail here. (See last years Elizabeth: The Golden Age & 2006's Marie Antoinette for further proof.) Benjamin Button winning would not be a surprise either, as it incorporates a wondeful blend of lavish and period, but it's not to not see The Duchess winning this.

Should win: The Duchess
Will win: The Duchess

Best Art Direction
A slightly tough category, especially with the inclusion of The Dark Knight and The Duchess here, but the various time periods, the various locations, and the overall general wonderment of Benjamin Button should secure a win here. Big shout out to Kristi Zea & Debra Schutt for there wonderful work in Revolutionary Road as well.

Should win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Film Editing
See Doubt. Be bored. Then see Frost/Nixon. Be enraptured in a great story. Frost/Nixon deserves the win here because it is the correct way to transfer a great play from the stage to the screen. The movie is almost ALL dialogue. No special effects, no big action, just words...and it's engulfingly good. This so easily could've been like Doubt (a.i. good performances but truthfully boring), but it wasn't. No scene was unneeded, and no cut was false. All that being said, Slumdog will rule the night, and therefore take the big Best Pic predictor category besides Director...Editing.

Should win: Frost/Nixon
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Cinematography
Firstly, as with Film Editing, Slumdog will take this in a sweep of the night. Secondly, when I think of certain shots/scenes that I consider almost perfect, this award goes to Benjamin Button. In particular the late-night ballerina scene, and the last 15 or so minutes of the film. Very sorry to NOT have Revolutionary Road in this category, as it is my favorite camerawork of the year. But out of the 5 nominees, my favorite is The Dark Knight. These are shots that are carefully planned, and pull you even deeper in the story. Very deserving of the win...but it won't.

Should win: The Dark Knight
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Animated Feature
Wall-E. Wall-E. Wall-E. My #2 film of the year, and possible the closest that Pixar has ever come to landing a Best Picture nomination, and that's including Toy Story, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, and my #1 film of last year, Ratatouille. However, the fact that Kung Fu Panda completely swept the Annie Awards this year mustn't be overlooked. Will the Academy suffer from the same Pixar backlash that the Annie's did? Let's hope not. Both Bolt and Kung Fu Panda are wonderful, very enjoyable films. Wall-E is a masterpiece. Any other fictor would be a travesty.

Should win: Wall-E
Will win: Wall-E

Best Adapted Screenplay
As I said before, Frost/Nixon was the proper way to bring a great play to ths screen. Wanna know the wrong ways? Watch Doubt, Proof, or The History Boys. All great plays that sunk for me on screen. That being said, I also has quite the affection for the Benjamin Button screenplay. How they could stretch a very short F. Scott Fitzgerald story into an almost 3 hour film is beyond me, similar to how Brokeback Mountain was expanded 3 years ago. However, as with a lot of categories this year, I expect Slumdog to show up victorious once again, especially after winning....oh, I don't know...everything!

Should win: Frost/Nixon
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Screenplay
The script of Wall-E is perfect. The script of In Bruges is hysterical. The script of Frozen River is heart-wrenching. And yet the script of Milk will be awarded the big prize as a Best Picture nominee consolation prize. Not to say it isn't good, especially considering the source, but better than the other nominees? Sorry, no.

Should win: In Bruges or Wall-E
Will win: Milk

Best Supporting Actress
There is possibly no performance on screen this year that is more pitch-perfect that Viola Davis. In just over 10 minutes of screen time, she completely steals the show. That being said, Woody Allen has possible never written a character such as Maria Elena in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. It's a star turn that doesn't even show up until halfway through the film, and that very well could and most likely will land Penelope Cruz in the pantheon of Oscar winners.

Should win: Viola Davis "Doubt"
Will win: Penelope Cruz "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

Best Supporting Actor
Does anyone not want Heath Ledger to win this? Does anyone this he is not deserving enough to win this?....I rest my case.

Should win: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"
Will win: Heath Ledger "The Dark Knight"

Best Actress
I might be the only person in the world who really did not care for Meryl Streep's performance in "Doubt". That being said, she could take this, especially after taking the SAG award. However, the fact that Kate Winslet was nominated in Best Actress, not supporting, for this amazing performance, and the fact that's she's the youngest 6-time nominee is Oscar history, makes me think this is her time, and deservedly so. In Revolutionary Road she was great. In The Reader, she's even better. Jolie's nod is a consolation prize for being snubbed last year, and Hathaway & Leo give outstanding turns, but this year they'll be watching from their seats.

Should win: Kate Winslet "The Reader"
Will win: Kate Winslet "The Reader"

Best Actor
Sean Penn vs. Mickey Rourke. That's what this one comes down to. Penn took the SAG and the Broadcast Film Critics. Rourke took the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. All in all, it seems that the momentum right now is slightly more with Rourke, who's comeback tale as an actor practically mirrors his comeback on screen in "The Wrestler". Also, this is his first nomination, after years out of the business. I guarantee that Sean Penn (in his 5th nomination) will be at the big show again. As for Rourke, possibly (probably) not, so I think they'll award him in this one chance they have. Don't forget, Penn won the Oscar for Mystic River 5 years ago, but not the SAG award (went to Johnny Depp for "Pirates of the Caribbean"). There's no "owing" for Penn.

Should win: Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"
Will win: Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"

Best Director
The fact that Christopher Nolan's name is not on this ballot is a crime to mankind. Even if The Dark Knight was shut out of Best Picture, his appearance here seemed secure. It wasn't, and it's a tragedy. That said, Danny Boyle has won....almost everything possible. Things aren't going to change here.

Should win: David Fincher "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Will win: Danny Boyle "Slumdog Millionaire"

Best Picture
Frost/Nixon was third on my top 10 of 2008 list, after The Dark Knight and Wall-E, so I have to put it as my winner. But Slumdog will take this along with many other awards on Sunday. Sometimes being "the little film that could" doesn't lead to Oscar gold (see Lost in Translation, Sideways, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno). But sometimes that title leads to a front-runner status. Slumdog has won practically every Best Picture given out in the awards seasons. The Oscar will be no different.

Should win: Frost/Nixon
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire


Final Winner Prediction Tallys

Slumdog Millionaire -- 7 Oscars
The Dark Knight -- 3 Oscars
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button -- 3 Oscars
The Wrestler -- 1 Oscar
The Reader-- 1 Oscar
Vicky Cristina Barcelona -- 1 Oscar
Milk -- 1 Oscar
Wall-E -- 1 Oscar
The Duchess -- 1 Oscar
The Class -- 1 Oscar
Man on Wire -- 1 Oscar
The Conscience of Nhem En -- 1 Oscar
Spielzugland (Toyland) -- 1 Oscar
Presto -- 1 Oscar

Here's hoping that the winners aren't as predictable as many of them seem to be, and enjoy the show on Sunday everyone!