2012 Final Winner Predictions...

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Should Win: Paperman
WILL WIN: PAPERMAN
Alternate: Adam and Dog

WINNER:  PAPERMAN (correct)

While I'm a huge Simpsons fan, It'd be surprising to see little Maggie taking home an Oscar this year. Adam and Dog is a brilliant short, created by a Disney animator. But the creme de la creme is Paperman. Also a Disney feature, it seamlessly blends traditional animation with CGI, in mostly black-and-white. And it's fantastic. It'll be released with the Wreck-It Ralph DVD in march.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Should Win: Asad
WILL WIN: CURFEW
Alternate: Asad

WINNER:  CURFEW (correct)

I would consider none of these films to be a weak link. "Henry" gives a great story of a concert pianist and the disappearance of his love. "Death of a Shadow" is a very interesting tale of a man who dies in WWI, only to be given a new chance at life by a stranger who imprisoned his shadow. And while I really enjoyed "Asad", the tale of a Somali boy trying to survive, I'm guessing that the prize will go to the very-worthy "Curfew", about a man who is asked by his estranged sister to look after his 9-year-old niece.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Should Win:  Inocente
WILL WIN:  OPEN HEART
Alternate:  Inocente

WINNER:  INOCENTE (alternate)

Anyone who has ever seen a good documentary knows that the story much touch the heart, not just deliver the facts. Perhaps no film in this group touches the heart more than "Open Heart", a film about a group of Rwandan children who must journey away from their families to seek heart treatments. Seriously? That has Oscar bait all over it. However, a few other strong candidate to consider. "Inocente", the story of a young immigrant trying to become a better artist, and "King's Point", which is a little lighter-hearted, about a Florida retirement community and the residents' view of life and the American dream.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should Win:  The Gatekeepers
WILL WIN:  SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
Alternate:  How to Survive a Plague

WINNER:  SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN (correct)

Again, not a weak link to be found in the bunch. However, in the course of this year's race, "Sugar Man" has by far enjoyed the highest profile. And, it's a "feel good doc", something that never hurts. All other nominees are worthy contenders. My personal favorite was "The Gatekeepers", about the Shin Bet, the Israeli intelligence service, and the security situation Israel is facing with it's conflict with Palenstine. Might be a tad bit too "on the nose" for some, though. On the flip side you have "5 Broken Cameras", about a Palestinian farmer and his nonviolent resistance of the Israeli army. Talk about 2 films on different sides! Also, watch for "Plague", the story of how AIDS was turned from a complete death sentence, into a much more manageable disease.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should Win:  Amour
WILL WIN:  AMOUR
Alternate:  A Royal Affair

WINNER:  AMOUR (correct)

One of the easiest calls of the night. "Amour" is up for 5 Oscars, all in major categories, and it's the first film to be nominated in this category as well as Best Picture since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon back in 2000. I don't see much in the possibility of an upset, but then again this category has had several in the recent past. I think "No" is a very strong film, as well as "War Witch", but the highest profile other than Amour has been Denmark's "A Royal Affair."  But in the end, if Amour wins nothing else...it wins here.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Should Win:  "Skyfall" -- Skyfall
WILL WIN:  "SKYFALL" -- SKYFALL
Alternate:  "Suddenly" -- Les Miserables

WINNER:  "SKYFALL" -- SKYFALL (correct)

Having your film up for Best Picture usually helps here (songs from Les Mis and Life of Pi are nominated), but it's hard to see anything other than "Skyfall" taking home the prize. Adele's voice provides the backdrop for one of the best Bond themes in years, and brings back that sense of grandeur that the older, classic songs used to. Also, amazingly, this would be the FIRST ever song win for a Bond film. Seriously? "Nobody Does it Better", "Goldfinger", "Live and Let Die"....you shall be avenged!
Possibly spoilers? None really, but "Suddenly" could sneak in if the Academy wishes to award the writers of Les Miserables. Also, could Seth MacFarlane actually win an Oscar....for Ted....for a song....why not!??!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should Win:  Life of Pi
WILL WIN:  LIFE OF PI
Alternate:  Lincoln

WINNER:  LIFE OF PI (correct)

This is a very tough call this year. While I'm hoping for Lincoln or Skyfall, I think that Mychael Danna's work on Life of Pi is the frontrunner. It's classic and original at the same time, blending several different world styles of music into one fantastic score. If Lincoln or Argo starts to sweep, this could be one of those "pick-up" categories for either, particularly Lincoln. John Williams with his 48th nomination, and he hasn't won in many many years. Also, watch for Skyfall. Thomas Newman with 10 nominations, and he has never won! That's getting record-level crazy, and his score for the newest Bond film is fantastic, tense, and pitch-perfect.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Should Win:  The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
WILL WIN:  LES MISERABLES
Alternate:  The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

WINNER:  LES MISERABLES (correct)

Take "Hitchcock" out of the equation. Seriously, it has no chance. (now watch it win lol)  This really is a literal toss-up between two completely different styles of film makeup. The Academy loves grandiose, painstaking with, giving the edge to "The Hobbit". However, after 2 wins for "Lord of the Rings", and also a "Narnia" win, possibly burnt out on the prosthetics? For me, while I love the makeup work of Hobbit, the most memorable characters to me were mostly CGI. Also, Les Mis is up for Best Picture. Can't stress enough how much that may mean in the voting process. Voters that may not have seen The Hobbit DEFINITELY saw Les Mis. Also, it's not exactly easy to make Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway and many others look decrepit. Seriously, tho, flip a coin. I landed on Les Miserables, so going with it...while secretly hoping for The Hobbit.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Should Win: Life of Pi
WILL WIN:  LIFE OF PI
Alternate:  The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

WINNER:  LIFE OF PI (correct)

Again, a category with 5 worthy nominees. I was particularly happen to see a Prometheus nod, but it has no chance. This race really comes down to Life of Pi vs The Hobbit. Fantastical real-world vs. Fantastical fantasy world. And as much as I think The Hobbit is deserving, I can't take anything away from Pi here. Some of the best 3D work ever put on film, and one of the few situations where the effects draw you in more than leaving you on the outside looking in. Gotta go Pi....but watch for Hobbit!

BEST SOUND EDITING
Should Win:  Skyfall
WILL WIN:  ZERO DARK THIRTY
Alternate:  Skyfall

WINNER:  SKYFALL & ZERO DARK THIRTY (TIE!!!)  (correct on both!)

I can see 4 of the 5 choices here having a realistic shot. The only one I'd leave on the outside is "Django". But realistically I see a 3-way race between "Zero", "Skyfall", and "Pi". And while I also want to stick my neck out for Skyfall, I'm going to go with Zero Dark Thirty. War films tend to do pretty decent in this category, and the final raid scene is a master class in sound effects.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Should Win:  Les Miserables
WILL WIN:  LES MISERABLES
Alternate:  Skyfall

WINNER:  LES MISERABLES (correct)

They recording the singing tracks live. Let that sink in for a moment. Wanna know why the lyrics of Les Mis didn't sound dubbed-over and perfect? It's cause they WEREN'T! This should be a closed-case for Les Mes, especially since musicals tend to do very well in this category. "Life of Pi" and "Lincoln" have a decent shot, but if there's a dark hose, I gotta root for Skyfall, if only for the master of sound Greg P. Russell. This is his 16th nod, and to date he has never won! Skyfall is a worthy choice. Here's hoping for ya, Greg!

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should Win:  Anna Karenina
WILL WIN:  ANNA KARENINA
Alternate:  Lincoln

WINNER:  ANNA KARENINA (correct)

If one rule usually holds true with the Oscars, it's that the prettiest and most elaborate period costumes always win. This year, that means "Anna Karenina". Several others have an outside chance. If Lincoln starts to sweep, it could nab this one for it's fantastic period garb. While Les Mis's clothes are beautiful, I don't see much in originality differing from the stage production. And of one my favorites, and a very left-field choice, would be Snow White and the Huntsman. Very original clothing to fit a very different telling of the classic story. Secretly rooting for it but not expecting by any means.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Should Win:  Life of Pi
WILL WIN:  LES MISERABLES
Alternate:  Lincoln

WINNER:  LINCOLN (alternate)

Wow this is a tough category. I wouldn't surprised if ANY of these films won. Tough, tough choice. I think "The Hobbit" is amazingly worthy, but I'm thinking may feel a little "seen that before". While I think "Anna Karenina" will take home costume I don't see it landing here as well. Although, I felt the same way a few years about "Alice in Wonderland", and THAT won both, so...who knows. Between the remaining 3 choices, I'm going with Les Mis, simply for the difficulty factor of re-creating historical Paris. Much of the film is laid out in an outdoor setting, and none of the look of the film rings false. But, again, tough tough category.

BEST FILM EDITING
Should Win:  Argo
WILL WIN:  ARGO
Alternate:  Zero Dark Thirty

WINNER:  ARGO (correct)

Argo took home the ACE award here, which is the best indicator I can give you. Also, most of the film's growing tension is created by the fantastic editing work. At no point, even in it's "slower" moments, could you accuse Argo of feeling slow. The other big contender here is the other film that brings the tension factor...Zero Dark Thirty. While Life of Pi and Lincoln are both wonderfully editing, I don't see either winning this one.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win:  Skyfall or Lincoln
WILL WIN:  LIFE OF PI
Alternate:  Skyfall

WINNER:  LIFE OF PI  (correct)

In a strange turn of percentages, the Oscars for Cinematography and Visual Effects have gone to the same film for the last 3 years. On that alone, I have to give Life of Pi the advantage over the equally brilliant work of Lincoln and Skyfall. Although, if there was ever a time to finally award the so far un-Oscared Roger Deakins, this would be it. He did take home the ASC award for Skyfall, after all.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Should Win:  ParaNorman
WILL WIN:  WRECK-IT RALPH
Alternate:  Brave

WINNER:  BRAVE (alternate)

Nice to see a field full of worthy choices, although for me this year, the standout was ParaNorman. Beautifully blending of stop-motion, traditional animation, and CGI, with a more adult oriented story that I expected. Pixar delivered another winner with Brave. But Wreck-It Ralph has front-runner status, after taking home awards from the Critics Choice, the Annie Awards, and the PGA. Also, as an outside chance, watch out for Frankenweenie, which could earn Tim Burton his first Oscars.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win:  Lincoln
WILL WIN:  ARGO
Alternate:  Lincoln

WINNER:  ARGO (correct)

This is really a 3-horse race between Argo, Lincoln, & Silver Linings bringing up the rear. My personal choice is Lincoln, but recently you had Argo taking the big prize from the WGA.  It really is a toss up between these two, and whoever the victor, I'm guessing it's about a 55-45 win either way. Silver has a tiny hope, especially if there is a vote split and passionate support. Argo is a bit more streamlined, Lincoln has more monologues and (arguably) the best dialogue. Whoever wins here...watch for Best Picture.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win:  Zero Dark Thirty or Moonrise Kingdom
WILL WIN:  DJANGO UNCHAINED
Alternate:  Amour

WINNER:  DJANGO UNCHAINED (correct)

So here's what WON'T win...Moonrise and Flight. Never are up for the big prize. The rest is a 3-way race. I'm going with the slightly favored Django. What are Tarantino films known for?...the dialogue. Always. He was snubbed for director, and hasn't won an Oscar since Pulp Fiction back in 1994. However, a win for either Amour or Zero Dark Thirty is very realistic. Zero took home the WGA award (Django was ineligible), and the script is taught and tense. But maybe too similar themed to the war-time Hurt Locker, which Mark Boal also won for? And if the Academy wants to give a 2nd Oscar to Michael Haneke besides Foreign Language Film, his best bet is here in screenplay. Too close to call!!!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win:  Helen Hunt -- "The Sessions"
WILL WIN:  ANNE HATHAWAY -- "LES MISERABLES"
Alternate:  Sally Field -- "Lincoln"

WINNER:  ANNE HATHAWAY -- "LES MISERABLES" (correct)

Anne Hathaway has led a clean sweep of the major awards leading up the Oscars, and should take home her first statue for her portrayal of Fantine. One of the biggest tear-inducing scenes of the whole film, and shot in one long take doesn't hurt. If there is a spoiler, it would be Sally Field. But only the Academy likes her...they really really like her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win:  Tommy Lee Jones -- "Lincoln"
WILL WIN:  TOMMY LEE JONES -- "LINCOLN"
Alternate:  Robert De Niro -- "Silver Linings Playbook"

WINNER:  CHRISTOPH WALTZ -- "DJANGO UNCHAINED" (missed)

The last 5 winners of the SAG award in this category have gone on to win the Oscar. That is the biggest argument I can make for my choice, other than the fact that TMJ is brilliant in Lincoln. However, this is that rare acting category where I wouldn't be surprised if any name is called. Robert De Niro has a very good chance to win his first Oscar since Raging Bull in 1980, and Christoph Waltz could make it 2 in 4 years, especially since he picked up the Golden Globe. But maybe too soon??? Hoffman is predictably fantastic, no nods for screenplay, director or Picture place him at a disadvantage.

BEST ACTRESS
Should Win:  Jessica Chastain -- "Zero Dark Thirty"
WILL WIN:  JENNIFER LAWRENCE -- "SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK"
Alternate:  Emmanuelle Riva -- "Amour"

WINNER:  JENNIFER LAWRENCE -- "SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK" (correct)

Jennifer Lawrence is the youngest person ever to receive multiple acting nominations, her first coming back in 2010 for "Winter's Bone". And after taking home a golden globe, the LA critics award, and most importantly the SAG award, I've gotta go with her here. And while I'm hoping for the amazing Jessica Chastain to win, I also have Emmanuelle Riva on my radar. She is the oldest nominee ever, and in fact, her 86th birthday is tonight, on Oscar night. What better present could they give her for her fantastic performance in Amour.

BEST ACTOR
Should Win:  Daniel Day-Lewis -- "Lincoln"
WILL WIN:  DANIEL DAY-LEWIS -- "LINCOLN"
Alternate:  Hugh Jackman -- "Les Miserables"

WINNER:  DANIEL DAY-LEWIS -- "LINCOLN" (correct)

Sorry, also rans. This is Daniel's year. He will make history as the first man to ever win 3 Best Actor Oscars. Several men have garnered 3 total awards between lead and supporting, but nobody has ever taken home Best Actor 3 times. That will change tonight. Any other name called would be the biggest surprise of the evening. Seriously, Beasts of the Southern Wild could win picture and still be the 2nd biggest upset of the night. Congrats Daniel, you deserve it.

BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win:  Steven Spielberg -- "Lincoln"
WILL WIN:  STEVEN SPIELBERG -- "LINCOLN"
Alternate:  Ang Lee -- "Life of Pi"

WINNER:  ANG LEE -- "LIFE OF PI" (alternate)

In a battle of the most-nominated films, I expect Spielberg to take home his 3rd Oscar, putting him in a very exclusive group of only a few filmmakers. Having Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow would make this category much more of a toss-up. But as is, the only spoiler I see is Ang Lee, who in actuality wouldn't be a spoiler at all. He took a book considered to be "unfilmable" and put it gorgeously up on the screen. The weirdest thing about this category is that while Spielberg is the favorite, he has YET TO WIN A MAJOR AWARD, losing the DGA, Globe, Critics Choice, and Bafta all to the non-nominated Ben Affleck.

BEST PICTURE
Should Win: Argo or Lincoln  (yeah, I cheated)
WILL WIN:  ARGO
Alternate:  Lincoln

WINNER:  ARGO (correct)

The most nominated film usually wins....but that is not the case this year. In what really has come down to a 2-film race, Argo and Lincoln are going for the big prize. Both films are worthy, and both would be fantastic choices. Lincoln was the perceived front-runner after garnishing 12 nominations. But the best thing that could've happened for Argo was Ben Affleck's snub for director. Since then, the film has taken home prizes from the DGA, PGA, Golden Globe, ACE, Critics Choice, WGA, and SAG. At this point, it seems unstoppable to win, and will be only the 4th film to take Best Picture without having it's director nominated. The last time was Driving Miss Daisy back in 1989, and before that, you have to go all the way back to the 1930s.
If any other film is called, it would be a huge surprise. Life of Pi or Zero Dark Thirty??? The smallest of possibilities, especially with a split vote, but Argo and Lincoln are the deserved frontrunners, and either would be a worthy and time-lasting choice for the Academy's history book.