I will post my final predictions in each category, as well as 2 "runner-up" choices. Some of these races are just either too close to call, or way too open to pick realistically accurately. So, with that in mind, HERE...WE...GO...
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The finalist list is narrowed down to 9, and France and Germany are so far ahead at this point that I don't think it'll matter much with other films are nominated, but still gotta pick 5, so...
- Australia -- "Samson and Delilah"
- Argentina -- "El Secreto de Sus Ojos"
- France -- "Un Prophet"
- Germany -- "The White Ribbon"
- Israel -- "Ajami"
Netherlands -- "Winter in Wartime"
Peru -- "The Milk of Sorrow"
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Academy has been ridiculously random in this category over the last few years. Songs winning the Globe aren't even safe anymore. And it all depends on a few certain members' taste of what they hear. Last year they only chose 3 songs, leaving out some of the most heralded competition.
- "All is Love" -- Where the Wild Things Are
- "Almost There" -- The Princess and the Frog
- "Cinema Italiano" -- Nine
- "I See You" -- Avatar
- "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" -- Crazy Heart
"Down in New Orleans" -- The Princess and the Frog
"(I Want To) Come Home" -- Everyone's Fine
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
With a few of my favorites not being eligible, I have to go with the few scores that have not only had some pre-buzz, but also that I remember noticing even in the theater, the very first time around.
- Avatar
- Fantastic Mr. Fox
- The Informant!
- A Single Man
- Up
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
BEST MAKEUP
If the Academy is going to give a nod to Terry Gilliam's latest, and Heath Ledger's final film, this is most likely where it'll happen. A no-show of District 9 would be the biggest surprise, as I think it's the frontrunner to WIN this category. And in a close 3-way race between futuristic faces, apocalypse ridden grime, and royal treatments, Star Trek should take the 3rd spot.
- District 9
- The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
- Star Trek
The Road
The Young Victoria
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
With the amazing effects work of Wild Things left on the semi-finalist floor, this should be sweep of the sci-fi films. Granted, this category is actually an Avatar & also-ran category.
- Avatar
- District 9
- Star Trek
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
BEST SOUND EDITING
If there is one category where I think Public Enemies deserves a nom, this is it. The gun effects, car chases, etc... are all wonderfully done. That said, it just hasn't even made much of a blip on the awards radar this year, so as usual, I think this category is gonna be a close match-up of the Best Sound nods, maybe with 1 or 2 different. The sci-fi films should make a splash in both, and the war surroundings of The Hurt Locker should be rewarded here too. The only difference for me, Up in Editing, Transformers in Mixing...
- Avatar
- District 9
- The Hurt Locker
- Star Trek
- Up
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
BEST SOUND MIXING
- Avatar
- District 9
- The Hurt Locker
- Star Trek
- Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Nine
Up
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bright Star was amazingly shut out from the Costume Designers Guild, even with some of the most original "period" pieces in recent memory. I also love the work in both Coco Before Chanel & Public Enemies, but I don't see them happening. The Young Victoria will follow the role of "royal" film, as past-winners Elizabeth: The Golden Age & The Duchess show. The costumes of Nine shouldn't be denied their rightful place, and the old London work of Sherlock Holmes is it's best chance to be recognized.
- Bright Star
- Inglourious Basterds
- Nine
- Sherlock Holmes
- The Young Victoria
Coco Before Chanel
An Education
BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar should easily slip in here for it's other-worldly designs and concepts, and the sci-fi trio might be completed again, as both District 9 and Star Trek brought their worlds to life, in very different and yet completely convincing ways. The last Harry Potter film to receive a nod was Goblet of Fire, and it was in this category. It also showed up as a BAFTA nominee, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it here. And finally, Basterds should grow it's tally with a nod here. Imho, the theater design by itself is worthy enough of a nod.
- Avatar
- District 9
- Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
- Inglourious Basterds
- Star Trek
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Where the Wild Things Are
BEST FILM EDITING
Usually a mix-match of the Best Picture nominees, and maybe with 1 or 2 others. But with 10 nominees this year in that category, it's hard to imagine any film showing up here and not there.
I feel Avatar, Locker, and Air are pretty much set. Basterds missed an ACE nod, and some have said that the bar scene is too long, with in the general tally, I think it should still sneak it's way in.
- Avatar
- District 9
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglourious Basterds
- Up in the Air
Nine
Star Trek
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My favorite category of all the technicals. Avatar, Locker, and Basterds should make it in due to their Best Pic bids, as well as their ASC nods. Other strong possibilities include District 9, for it's documentary/real time feel, and The White Ribbon, for possibly the best film to be shot in black-and-white since Good Night and Good Luck back in 05, but I'm going with the tremendous theatrical and clever shadow-work of Nine, along with the eye-opening and devastatingly good work in The Road. If Road doesn't make it in the Makeup or Art Direction categories, this might be it's best chance at it's deserved recognition.
- Avatar
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglourious Basterds
- Nine
- The Road
District 9
The White Ribbon
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline, Fox, Frog, and Up should be all locked here. The big question is the final spot. It's nice to see 5 nominees in this category again, btw, for only the 2nd time in history, and the first since 2002. The race is really been Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, the very funny Sony release, and Hayao Miyazaki's latest work, Ponyo. With as much momentum as Cloudy has, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to hear it called, but even with the lackluster Annie Award mentions, I can't seem to bring myself to believe that the Academy won't honor one of the greatest animators of all time. In a tight call...Ponyo.
- Coraline
- Fantastic Mr. Fox
- Ponyo
- The Princess and the Frog
- Up
9
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
While I think this category will eventually be a slam-dunk win for Up in the Air, picking the nominees is a bit tougher. Up in the Air will be joined by the British film An Education, as well as Precious. Those 3 are safe. Now, it gets trickier. The joined buzz for and WGA nod for District 9 should be enough to give it a nod here. And while I think the wonderful In the Loop should be nominated, I simply don't think enough people saw it. That leaves 2 very different films...the character study of a washed-up music man in Crazy Heart, and the lovable characters from Roald Dahl's Mr. Fox. Besides in the animated category, I think Fox deserves some love elsewhere. And I think it just might be the first animated film since Shrek, not from the Pixar Studio (all hail!!!!), to receive a screenplay nomination.
- District 9
- An Education
- Fantastic Mr. Fox
- Precious
- Up in the Air
Crazy Heart
In the Loop
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The best chance for (500) Days, my #2 film of the year, to get a nod. And this is also the 1 big category they are pushing for. It's the most truly original script of the year, and it deserves to be here. The wonderful work of Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker should easily carry him in, and Quentin Tarantino will get his first nod here since Pulp Fiction!!! (just wrong), and I'm sure his answer will be "Gratsi"! hahaha The Coen brothers have hit quite a few critics awards, and the latest of their always clever scripts should show up here, it's best chance at a nod. And finally, since 4 of their last 5 films have found a home here, Pixar's Up should earn the studio it's 6th total screenplay nod. However, don't count out the "sweep effect" for Avatar, althought not even Titanic could earn James Cameron a nod. Outside chance? The Hangover, which was nominated by both the Writers Guild, and the Bafta's.
- (500) Days of Summer
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglourious Basterds
- A Serious Man
- Up
Avatar
The Hangover
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Farmiga, Kendrick, and Mo'Nique are locks. And while her work in her film has been called "limited" (which I totally disagree with btw), Julianne Moore should get her first nod since her double-nods back in 02. If the Academy loves The Messenger, Samantha Morton will get in. If the Basterds tally adds up, SAG nominee Diane Kruger will hear her name called. But even with the lackluster reviews and fading buzz, I'm taking a gut-shot with Penelope Cruz for Nine. She's the best thing in the film, and if it weren't for her win in this category last year, I would call her a lock too.
- Penelope Cruz -- "Nine"
- Vera Farmiga -- "Up in the Air"
- Anna Kendrick -- "Up in the Air"
- Mo'Nique -- "Precious"
- Julianne Moore -- "A Single Man"
Diane Kruger -- "Inglourious Basterds"
Samantha Morton -- "The Messenger"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The only locks for me are Woody and Waltz. If the Invictus love spreads, then Matt Damon will get his first nod since way back in 97 for Good Will Hunting, and it may be seen as a makeup for his no-show nod for any of the Bourne films. If I had it my way, Christian McKay would be a sinch for a nod for his amazing turn as Orson Welles, but I'm betting the final 3 spots go to a trio of actors that have amazing never been nominated in their distinguished careers. Stanley Tucci is the best bet as The Lovely Bones' killer next door. Christopher Plummer could get his 1st ever nod at the ripe young old of 80, as Tolstoy, and with the BAFTA love for the film (see The Reader last year), I'm guessing Alfred Molina will receive his first nod as a father who doesn't wanna let go.
- Woody Harrelson -- "The Messenger"
- Alfred Molina -- "An Education"
- Christopher Plummer -- "The Last Station"
- Stanley Tucci -- "The Lovely Bones"
- Christoph Waltz -- "Inglourious Basterds"
Matt Damon -- "Invictus"
Christian McKay -- "Me and Orson Welles"
BEST ACTRESS
Bullock, Mulligan, Sidibe, and Streep are all locks. The final spot is really a 2-woman race between 2006's winner Helen Mirren as Leo Tolstoy's wife, and 26-year-old up and comer Emily Blunt as the Young Queen Victoria. My guess, Blunt by a nose?
- Emily Blunt -- "The Young Victoria"
- Sandra Bullock -- "The Blind Side"
- Carey Mulligan -- "An Education"
- Gabourey Sidibe -- "Precious"
- Meryl Streep -- "Julie & Julia"
Helen Mirren -- "The Last Station"
Saoirse Ronan -- "The Lovely Bones"
BEST ACTOR
I really can't see anyone taking out one of these gentlemen, although I think Viggo deserves to be there.
- Jeff Bridges -- "Crazy Heart"
- George Clooney -- "Up in the Air"
- Colin Firth -- "A Single Man"
- Morgan Freeman -- "Invictus"
- Jeremy Renner -- "The Hurt Locker"
Matt Damon -- "The Informant!"
Viggo Mortensen -- "The Road"
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow will be the 4th woman ever nominated here, and the 1st with true "front-runner" status, which she deserves. James Cameron and Quentin Tarantino both delivered their true singular visions, and Jason Reitman continues his mastery of filmmaker with the timely, hilarious, and devastating Up in the Air. The final spot is the tricky one. You can never count out the Eastwood factor (see Letters from Iwo Jima & Million Dollar Baby for examples), but with Gran Torino fizzling out last year, maybe they're cooling a bit towards him. My pick would be Neill Blomkamp, for delivering one of the best debut films in recent memory. But I have to go with Lee Daniels for Precious. The biggest reason being his DGA nod.
- Kathryn Bigelow -- "The Hurt Locker"
- James Cameron -- "Avatar"
- Lee Daniels -- "Precious"
- Jason Reitman -- "Up in the Air"
- Quentin Tarantino -- "Inglourious Basterds"
Neill Blomkamp -- "District 9"
Clint Eastwood -- "Invictus"
BEST PICTURE
The 1st time since 1943 (the year Casablanca won) that we have 10 nominees. There are a few true gutshot calls here, but I stand by my choices, and am amazed that 7 out of these 10 also made my personal top 10 of the year. District 9 and Star Trek are very vulnerable to not show up in the big race, but dramatic guild love for both puts them in my guesses. The strongest chances NOT on this list would be the Coen's A Serious Man, or The Messenger...but in my perfect world, Precious is left off (it won't be), so I'll have to leave off Invictus (good, not great), and add the wonderful 500 Days of Summer to the list. Nothing would make my day better than to hear that called out. Literally...nothing.
- Avatar
- District 9
- An Education
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglourious Basterds
- Invictus
- Precious
- Star Trek
- Up
- Up in the Air
(500) Days of Summer (GOD I HOPE!!!!)
The Messenger
Nine
A Serious Man
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