Category Analysis - BEST ACTOR

The nominees are:

Richard Jenkins "The Visitor"
Frank Langella "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn "Milk"
Brad Pitt "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke "The Wrestler"

How I predicted: 4/5 (Missed Brad Pitt)

Every once in a while when the right part comes around, the Academy likes to throw a bone out to a great little-known character actor. Enter Richard Jenkins, who was not only great in The Visitor, but also had great supporting work in both Burn After Reading and Step Brothers. Frank Langella hits the Oscar trail for the first time, even though he's been around for decades of superb work. Brad Pitt gets his first nod in 13 years. Any one of these 3 could play spoiler, but the race is truly between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Both give amazing performances, both deserving of the win, and both you can argue points about WHY they will win.
Penn's film has 8 nominations going for it, meaning more widespread love from the Academy. He also just picked up the SAG Award, something he did NOT do when he won for Mystic River 5 years ago.
Rourke's film, like his life, is a classic tale of a comeback kid, and the Academy find comeback kids hard to ignore. They're easy to cheer for. He just won the Golden Globe.
It really is a toss up here, but for the sake of argument, I personally think Rourke gives a better performance. Some of the best moments of the year are his, when nothing is said, but you can just see the emotion and pain on Mickey's face. Truly internal and wonderful acting. Also, who knows when he'll get another nod, where as with Penn, it's only a matter of time.

My Prediction: MICKEY ROURKE "THE WRESTLER"