Not sure why this never was posted, as I wrote it the week before the nominations were announced, but just for continuity, here were my predictions for what would be chosen as this year's nominees in every category except the 3 short films. As always, I chose my predix, plus 2 alternate for each category. Out of 106 possible total nods, I correctly got 81 right, for a 76.4% rate! And if you add in the alternate choices as well, I KILLED IT! Total goes up to a whopping 100/106, for a 94.3% correct prediction rate! Here's how they played out...
* = Correct guesses
BEST PICTURE (8/8)
*Birdman
*Boyhood
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*The Imitation Game
*The Theory of Everything
*Whiplash (if 6)
*Selma (if 7)
*American Sniper (if 8)
Gone Girl (if 9)
Nightcrawler (if 10)
(alt) Foxcatcher
(alt) Interstellar
BEST DIRECTOR (4/5) [5/5 w/alt]
*Wes Anderson "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Clint Eastwood "American Sniper"
*Alejandro G. Inarritu "Birdman"
*Richard Linklater "Boyhood"
*Morten Tyldum "The Imitation Game"
(alt) Damien Chazelle
(alt) *Bennett Miller
BEST ACTOR (3/5) [4/5 w/alt]
*Benedict Cumberbatch "The Imitation Game"
Jake Gyllenhaal "Nightcrawler"
*Michael Keaton "Birdman"
David Oyelowo "Selma"
*Eddie Redmayne "The Theory of Everything"
(alt) *Bradley Cooper
(alt) Ralph Fiennes
BEST ACTRESS (4/5) [5/5 w/alt]
Amy Adams "Big Eyes"
*Felicity Jones "The Theory of Everything"
*Julianne Moore "Still Alice"
*Rosamund Pike "Gone Girl"
*Reese Witherspoon "Wild"
(alt) Jennifer Aniston
(alt) *Marion Cotillard
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (5/5)
*Robert Duvall "The Judge"
*Ethan Hawke "Boyhood"
*Edward Norton "Birdman"
*Mark Ruffalo "Foxcatcher"
*J.K. Simmons "Whiplash"
(alt) Steve Carell
(alt) Alfred Molina
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (4/5) [5/5 w/alt]
*Patricia Arquette "Boyhood"
Jessica Chastain "A Most Violent Year"
*Keira Knightley "The Imitation Game"
*Emma Stone "Birdman"
*Meryl Streep "Into the Woods"
(alt) *Laura Dern
(alt) Rene Russo
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (5/5)
*Birdman
*Boyhood
*Foxcatcher
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*Nightcrawler
(alt) Interstellar
(alt) Selma
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (4/5) [5/5 w/alt]
*American Sniper
Gone Girl
*The Imitation Game
*The Theory of Everything
*Whiplash
(alt) *Inherent Vice
(alt) Wild
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (4/5) [5/5 w/alt]
*Big Hero 6
*The Boxtrolls
*How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Lego Movie
*The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
(alt) The Book of Life
(alt) *Song of the Sea
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (3/5) [5/5 w/alt]
*Birdman
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
*Mr. Turner
*Unbroken
(alt) *The Grand Budapest Hotel
(alt) *Ida
BEST FILM EDITING (3/5) [5/5 w/alt]
*American Sniper
Birdman
*Boyhood
Gone Girl
*The Imitation Game
(alt) *The Grand Budapest Hotel
(alt) *Whiplash
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN (4/5) [5/5 w/alt]
Birdman
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*The Imitation Game
*Interstellar
*Into the Woods
(alt) *Mr. Turner
(alt) Nightcrawler
BEST COSTUME DESIGN (3/5) [4/5 w/alt]
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
*Into the Woods
*Maleficent
The Theory of Everything
(alt) *Mr. Turner
(alt) Selma
BEST SOUND MIXING (3/5) [5/5 w/alt]
*American Sniper
*Birdman
Guardians of the Galaxy
*Interstellar
Into the Woods
(alt) *Unbroken
(alt) *Whiplash
BEST SOUND EDITING (4/5) [5/5 w/alt]
*American Sniper
*Birdman
Guardians of the Galaxy
*The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
*Interstellar
(alt) *Unbroken
(alt) Whiplash
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (3/5) [5/5 w/alt]
*Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
*Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
*Interstellar
(alt) *Captain America: The Winter Soldier
(alt) *X-Men: Days of Future Past
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING (3/3)
*Foxcatcher
*The Grand Budapest Hotel
*Guardians of the Galaxy
(alt) Maleficent
(alt) The Theory of Everything
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (3/5) [4/5 w/alt]
Gone Girl
*The Imitation Game
*Interstellar
Noah
*The Theory of Everything
(alt) *The Grand Budapest Hotel
(alt) Under the Skin
BEST ORIGINAL SONG (4/5)
"Big Eyes" - Big Eyes
* "Everything Is Awesome" - The Lego Movie
* "Glory" - Selma
* "Lost Stars" - Begin Again
* "Not Gonna Miss You" - Glen Campbell: I'll Miss You
(alt) "The Last Goodbye" - The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
(alt) "Mercy" - Noah
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (4/5) [5/5 w/alt]
Force Majeure
*Ida
*Leviathan
*Tangerine
*Wild Tales
(alt) The Accused
(alt) Timbuktu
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (3/5)
*Citizenfour
Joredowsky's Dune
*Last Days in Vietnam
Life Itself
*Virunga
(alt) Art and Craft
(alt) Citizen Koch
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
2014 OSCAR WINNERS!!
The winners of the 2014 Academy Awards, and how I did on my predictions.
Best Picture
BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE (alternate)
Best Director
ALEJANDRO G. INARRITU - "BIRDMAN" (alternate)
Best Actor
EDDIE REDMAYNE - "THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING" (correct)
Best Actress
JULIANNE MOORE - "STILL ALICE" (correct)
Best Supporting Actor
J.K. SIMMONS - "WHIPLASH" (correct)
Best Supporting Actress
PATRICIA ARQUETTE - "BOYHOOD" (correct)
Best Original Screenplay
BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE) (alternate)
Best Adapted Screenplay
THE IMITATION GAME (correct)
Best Animated Feature
BIG HERO 6 (alternate)
Best Cinematography
BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE) (correct)
Best Film Editing
WHIPLASH (missed)
Best Production Design
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
Best Costume Design
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
Best Sound Mixing
WHIPLASH (correct)
Best Sound Editing
AMERICAN SNIPER (correct)
Best Visual Effects
INTERSTELLAR (correct)
Best Makeup
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
Best Original Score
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (alternate)
Best Original Song
"GLORY" - SELMA (correct)
Best Foreign Language Film
IDA (correct)
Best Documentary Feature
CITIZENFOUR (correct)
Best Documentary Short Subject
CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1 (correct)
Best Live Action Short Film
THE PHONE CALL (correct)
Best Animated Short Film
FEAST (correct)
Also, a few fun facts about this years awards:
Best Picture
BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE (alternate)
Best Director
ALEJANDRO G. INARRITU - "BIRDMAN" (alternate)
Best Actor
EDDIE REDMAYNE - "THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING" (correct)
Best Actress
JULIANNE MOORE - "STILL ALICE" (correct)
Best Supporting Actor
J.K. SIMMONS - "WHIPLASH" (correct)
Best Supporting Actress
PATRICIA ARQUETTE - "BOYHOOD" (correct)
Best Original Screenplay
BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE) (alternate)
Best Adapted Screenplay
THE IMITATION GAME (correct)
Best Animated Feature
BIG HERO 6 (alternate)
Best Cinematography
BIRDMAN OR (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE) (correct)
Best Film Editing
WHIPLASH (missed)
Best Production Design
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
Best Costume Design
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
Best Sound Mixing
WHIPLASH (correct)
Best Sound Editing
AMERICAN SNIPER (correct)
Best Visual Effects
INTERSTELLAR (correct)
Best Makeup
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
Best Original Score
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (alternate)
Best Original Song
"GLORY" - SELMA (correct)
Best Foreign Language Film
IDA (correct)
Best Documentary Feature
CITIZENFOUR (correct)
Best Documentary Short Subject
CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1 (correct)
Best Live Action Short Film
THE PHONE CALL (correct)
Best Animated Short Film
FEAST (correct)
Also, a few fun facts about this years awards:
- For the first time since the Academy changed the Best Picture race from the customary 5 films, first to 10, now to an undetermined number, ALL FILMS (this year 8) nominated for Best Picture took home at least 1 award.
- For the first time in almost 35 years (1980's Ordinary People), a film won Best Picture (Birdman) without being nominated in the Best Film Editing category.
- With the win this year for Big Hero 6, Disney/Pixar has now taken 7 out of the last 8 wins in the Animated Feature category. The only exception is Rango in 2011. Dreamworks has not won the category since the first year the category was created, for Shrek back in 2001. [***They did produce and distribute Wallace & Gromit, which won in 05, but Aardman Studios were the filmmakers.]
Saturday, February 21, 2015
2014 Final Oscar Winner Predictions...
Let me state for the record that this is an incredibly difficult year to play the Oscar game! So many categories are wide-open, with realistic chances of winning across the board. Also makes for a great year when so many races in the biggest categories possible (Screenplays, Acting, Director, Picture) are literally too close to call on the DAY BEFORE the show!
Will Birdman ride it's 9 nominations, and recent Guild love to the top? Can Boyhood retain it's frontrunner status that it earned previously. Will the most popular film with the public, American Sniper, benefit from possible vote-splitting and surprise everyone in a major category or 2 or 3?
There are always surprises, always regrets. In the past I've normally correctly guessed around 18/19 winners, plus 3/4 alternates, maybe a miss or 2. If I get anywhere near those numbers this year, I'll be both surprised and very happy! Could be a great night...or a terrible one! LOL
I can't wait to see how it all plays out. Until then, here are my final predictions and a little dialogue about why for all 24 categories. Enjoy the show!....
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Should Win: Feast
WILL WIN: FEAST
Alternate: The Bigger Picture
WINNER: FEAST (correct)
I really enjoyed all 5 of the nominees this year, particularly the stop-motion of The Bigger Picture, and the gorgeous The Dam Keeper...but Feast rose to the head of the crop for me. Another Disney short, wonderfully made and told in 7 gorgeous minutes. The life of a man, his life, his girl, his heart, his family...all seen through the eyes of his dog, and the meals that take place during his life events. Very original and beautiful storytelling without barely a word spoken.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Should Win: Parvaneh
WILL WIN: THE PHONE CALL
Alternate: Boogaloo and Graham
WINNER: THE PHONE CALL (correct)
Shot in the dark, but led with a wonderful performance by Sally Hawkins (along with voicework over the phone by Jim Broadbent), I'm going with The Phone Call. Just like my prediction in the next category, a tough, realistic view of a dire situation.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Should Win: Our Curse
WILL WIN: CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1
Alternate: Joanna
WINNER: CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1 (correct)
This is one category I DO NOT excel at! lol It is what it is. Our Curse was my fave of the bunch. Heartbreaking, almost too real at times. But with our national views turned so much to our military, it seems like the best fit to award a film that points a camera at our veterans and those who help them.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should Win: Citizenfour
WILL WIN: CITIZENFOUR
Alternate: Virunga
WINNER: CITIZENFOUR (correct)
It's the highest profile doc of the bunch by far, but sometimes that doesn't mean much. Another open race category. All 5 docs are well done (I gave them ALL at least a B grade).
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should Win: Timbuktu
WILL WIN: IDA
Alternate: Wild Tales
WINNER: IDA (correct)
All 5 are wonderful films. Wild Tales has many fans, and they seem to LOVE the film. But the extra nod for Ida for cinematography might come into play as well. A truly wide open race and Ida is more a toss-up guess than a sure prediction. Any winner would be worthy this year.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Should Win: "Lost Stars" - Begin Again
WILL WIN: "GLORY" - SELMA
Alternate: "Lost Stars" - Begin Again
WINNER: "GLORY" - SELMA (correct)
I DESPERATELY hope that "Lost Stars" wins this. Begin Again is one of my favorite films of the year, with beautiful original music. This was the only song they chose to submit for consideration (could have been at least 3 or 4 more worthy choices too).
That said, the much-hyped, much-talked about, and much-snubbed Selma is still the likely frontrunner. The starpower combo of John Legend and Common, along with it's Globe win, and they even performed it at the Grammys! Still, fingers crossed for Lost Stars. No song is more central to it's film's storyline this year.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should Win: Interstellar
WILL WIN: THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WINNER: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (alternate)
The Theory of Everything took the golden globe, and 6 of the last 7 winners there also won here. A year after the very different Gravity score wins, Theory brings it back to traditional film music, and gorgeous music at that. The music is tangible, and almost feels like a side character in the film at times.
Plus, the biggest competition is from the masterful Alexandre Desplat, but he very well may split his vote between his 2 nominations. Since the category went to five nominees decades and decades ago, 12 times has a composer been honored with 2 nominations here in the same here. 11 of those times....they lost. The only exception was John Williams with Star Wars (also Close Encounters that year). That does not bode well for Mr. Desplat. He will definitely get his Oscar(s)....just not this year.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
WILL WIN: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy
WINNER: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
The Grand Budapest should ride it's Best Pic nominee status to a win here. Plus, the character and old-age makeup work are FANTASTIC. It's my prediction and I'm sticking to it. That said, if I had a ballot, I would 150% be voting for Guardians. I heard someone say it was just a bunch of people with different colored skin....seriously? Look closer! The intricate detailed work is INCREDIBLE.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Should Win: Interstellar
WILL WIN: INTERSTELLAR
Alternate: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
WINNER: INTERSTELLAR (correct)
My first instinct was to go with Apes here, and I still feel it's a good bet to make, but if they didn't award the first film here, I have a slight hesitation to think they'll do it think time around. All 5 films are worthy nominees, and I wouldn't be surprise to here ANY of them called out. But, with 5 nominations, maybe they'll want to give something to Interstellar, which totally deserves it, if not for the space scenes alone.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Should Win: American Sniper
WILL WIN: AMERICAN SNIPER
Alternate: Birdman
WINNER: AMERICAN SNIPER (correct)
BEST SOUND MIXING
Should Win: American Sniper
WILL WIN: WHIPLASH
Alternate: American Sniper
WINNER: WHIPLASH (correct)
Action vs. music. Action vs. music. Action vs. music.......War movies usually do well here (Black Hawk Down, The Hurt Locker), and I have a feeling that I might be calling this one wrong, and Sniper will end up with both sound categories, but I can't deny the Academy's love for good movie music. The finale scene alone is enough to make plenty of people check the Whiplash box. Plus...they may want to reward the film somewhere else besides J.K. Simmons. Guessing the tally will be split between the 2 categories.
As an outside option, if the night starts going Birdman's way....it could take both of these categories as well, very easily.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WILL WIN: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alternate: Into the Woods
WINNER: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
Could be another case of both design categories going to one film. The garb of Into the Woods is magical in it's way, but Colleen Atwood does already have 3 Oscars, so that so hurt the musical. Again, Mr. Turner....gorgeous.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WILL WIN: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alternate: Mr. Turner
WINNER: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
While they may not be the most beautiful (but they are in their own way), certainly the most memorable scenery of the year is found in the Grand Budapest. The fact that it feels fresh while at the same time absolutely inhabiting the "feel" of a Wes Anderson film gives extra brownie points. The sets and world of Mr. Turner is breathtakingly beautiful as well. If enough people popped in that screener, it could be a surprise winner.
BEST FILM EDITING
Should Win: Boyhood
WILL WIN: BOYHOOD
Alternate: American Sniper
WINNER: WHIPLASH (missed)
A big category to watch. It's an absolute horse race. The only film I don't really see in a dead-heat is The Imitation Game. Even with the long running time, the 12-year story of Boyhood flows pretty seamlessly through that time, and since editing quite often goes to a Best Picture frontrunner, I'm going with it here. American Sniper and Whiplash are both STRONG contenders as well, and wouldn't be any surprise as winners.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win: Birdman
WILL WIN: BIRDMAN
Alternate: Mr. Turner
WINNER: BIRDMAN (correct)
Even though there are some strong, worthy contenders, the biggest talk about Birdman besides the performances is with the camerawork. Lubezki should take home his 2nd Oscar in any many years, after winning last year for Gravity. Is there anything with a camera this guy can't do???
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Should Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
WILL WIN: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2
Alternate: Big Hero 6
WINNER: BIG HERO 6 (alternate)
When the nominations snubbed The Lego Movie, it was goodbye to the absolute frontrunner. Dreamworks hasn't won in this category since the very first year the category existed! (Shrek, 2001). Technically they produced Wallace & Gromit in 05, but I don't count that. After cleaning up at the Annie Awards, How to Train Your Dragon 2 should fly in to collect this one. Big Hero 6 never seemed to quite find a sure foot in the race, Boxtrolls is Laika's least praised film to date, and I can't see either of the foreign language films pulling an upset, nomatter how good they are.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Whiplash
WILL WIN: THE IMITATION GAME
Alternate: Whiplash
WINNER: THE IMITATION GAME (correct)
The best place to award Imitation Game is here. Although, I can honestly say that barring a shocking Inherent Vice win, I could see any of the other nominees winning here and it wouldn't surprise me. Particularly Whiplash, which scored a nod even after the category switching by the Academy. It could also be a way to award the first time writer/director Damien Chazelle. But despite all that, I don't think they'll want to send Imitation Game home emptyhanded, and this is a great place to reward a strong film.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WILL WIN: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alternate: Birdman
WINNER: BIRDMAN (alternate)
A tough 3-horse race between Birdman, Boyhood (which could both easily win), and my choice, Grand Budapest. Wes Anderson will take home his overdue writing Oscar, on his third nominated script (after Royal Tenenbaums and Moonrise Kingdom). It's also the best chance to reward the film in the major categories. I'm very tempted to say Birdman here, but the Bafta & WGA wins make me think Budapest will pull thru.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win: Keira Knightley - "The Imitation Game"
WILL WIN: PATRICIA ARQUETTE - "BOYHOOD"
Alternate: Keira Knightley - "The Imitation Game"
WINNER: PATRICIA ARQUETTE - "BOYHOOD" (correct)
Locked up acting category #1. Patricia Arquette will ride the Boyhood train all the way to the stage. She's won EVERYTHING leading up to this...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win: J.K. Simmons - "Whiplash"
WILL WIN: J.K. SIMMONS - "WHIPLASH"
Alternate: Edward Norton - "Birdman"
WINNER: J.K. SIMMONS - "WHIPLASH" (correct)
Locked up acting category #2. Another case of winning everything in the lead up, and while Norton is fantastic in Birdman, the competition just never quite caught up this year. Great character actor for decades. Here's...your...Oscar....Bum, Bud-e-um, Bum, Bum, Bum, Bum.
BEST ACTRESS
Should Win: Rosamund Pike - "Gone Girl"
WILL WIN: JULIANNE MOORE - "STILL ALICE"
Alternate: Reese Witherspoon - "Wild"
WINNER: JULIANNE MOORE - 'STILL ALICE" (correct)
Done deal. Locked up acting category #3. Julianne Moore will finally be an Oscar winner, on her 5th nomination.
BEST ACTOR
Should Win: Michael Keaton - "Birdman"
WILL WIN: EDDIE REDMAYNE - "THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING"
Alternate: Michael Keaton - "Birdman"
WINNER: EDDIE REDMAYNE - "THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING" (correct)
I desperately want to put Keaton here, but after Redmayne took the SAG and BAFTA, I just can't do it. I had him predicted until literally this morning, but I gotta go head over heart on this one, even if it comes back to haunt me. No one can say that Redmayne's performance isn't worthy enough, but then again so is Keaton. And who knows, if Sniper lives up to it's surprise love, could Cooper actually swing in and take this one a la Adrien Brody in 2002? Stranger things have happened.
BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win: Richard Linklater - "Boyhood"
WILL WIN: RICHARD LINKLATER - "BOYHOOD"
Alternate: Alejandro G. Inarritu - "Birdman"
WINNER: ALEJANDRO G. INARRITU - "BIRDMAN" (alternate)
Going against the DGA grain here, even though Inarittu won that prize and that prize is insanely predictable. Birdman is an absolute director's vision film, which tilts the scales, but Boyhood is more seen as a passionate project. Something that had never been attempted before, call it a gimmick or not. And Linklater pulled it off. He's well loved in the industry, and I think he JUST squeaks out a win here. But wouldn't shock at all if Inarittu takes home the statue. One of the closest, toughest races of the year.
BEST PICTURE
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WILL WIN: BOYHOOD
Alternate: Birdman
WINNER: BIRDMAN (alternate)
Again, it really comes down to Boyhood vs Birdman....unless a vote split brings the crowd-pleaser and money-maker Sniper into play??!! The Academy loves films that are about Hollywood and the art of performance/creation (see The Artist, Argo, etc..) and that gives Birdman a big push. But, without the amazing camerawork, will it be seen as merely a good play? Again, Boyhood is a passion project, and the type of film that turns the camera around and points it at everyone else in everyday life in everywhere, U.S.A. So even though I think this one might come back to bite me....I'm sticking with my original gut decision and saying the Academy will follow Bafta's lead, and Linklater wins his 2nd Oscar of the night, this one for Best Picture.
Will Birdman ride it's 9 nominations, and recent Guild love to the top? Can Boyhood retain it's frontrunner status that it earned previously. Will the most popular film with the public, American Sniper, benefit from possible vote-splitting and surprise everyone in a major category or 2 or 3?
There are always surprises, always regrets. In the past I've normally correctly guessed around 18/19 winners, plus 3/4 alternates, maybe a miss or 2. If I get anywhere near those numbers this year, I'll be both surprised and very happy! Could be a great night...or a terrible one! LOL
I can't wait to see how it all plays out. Until then, here are my final predictions and a little dialogue about why for all 24 categories. Enjoy the show!....
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Should Win: Feast
WILL WIN: FEAST
Alternate: The Bigger Picture
WINNER: FEAST (correct)
I really enjoyed all 5 of the nominees this year, particularly the stop-motion of The Bigger Picture, and the gorgeous The Dam Keeper...but Feast rose to the head of the crop for me. Another Disney short, wonderfully made and told in 7 gorgeous minutes. The life of a man, his life, his girl, his heart, his family...all seen through the eyes of his dog, and the meals that take place during his life events. Very original and beautiful storytelling without barely a word spoken.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Should Win: Parvaneh
WILL WIN: THE PHONE CALL
Alternate: Boogaloo and Graham
WINNER: THE PHONE CALL (correct)
Shot in the dark, but led with a wonderful performance by Sally Hawkins (along with voicework over the phone by Jim Broadbent), I'm going with The Phone Call. Just like my prediction in the next category, a tough, realistic view of a dire situation.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Should Win: Our Curse
WILL WIN: CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1
Alternate: Joanna
WINNER: CRISIS HOTLINE: VETERANS PRESS 1 (correct)
This is one category I DO NOT excel at! lol It is what it is. Our Curse was my fave of the bunch. Heartbreaking, almost too real at times. But with our national views turned so much to our military, it seems like the best fit to award a film that points a camera at our veterans and those who help them.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should Win: Citizenfour
WILL WIN: CITIZENFOUR
Alternate: Virunga
WINNER: CITIZENFOUR (correct)
It's the highest profile doc of the bunch by far, but sometimes that doesn't mean much. Another open race category. All 5 docs are well done (I gave them ALL at least a B grade).
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should Win: Timbuktu
WILL WIN: IDA
Alternate: Wild Tales
WINNER: IDA (correct)
All 5 are wonderful films. Wild Tales has many fans, and they seem to LOVE the film. But the extra nod for Ida for cinematography might come into play as well. A truly wide open race and Ida is more a toss-up guess than a sure prediction. Any winner would be worthy this year.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Should Win: "Lost Stars" - Begin Again
WILL WIN: "GLORY" - SELMA
Alternate: "Lost Stars" - Begin Again
WINNER: "GLORY" - SELMA (correct)
I DESPERATELY hope that "Lost Stars" wins this. Begin Again is one of my favorite films of the year, with beautiful original music. This was the only song they chose to submit for consideration (could have been at least 3 or 4 more worthy choices too).
That said, the much-hyped, much-talked about, and much-snubbed Selma is still the likely frontrunner. The starpower combo of John Legend and Common, along with it's Globe win, and they even performed it at the Grammys! Still, fingers crossed for Lost Stars. No song is more central to it's film's storyline this year.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should Win: Interstellar
WILL WIN: THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WINNER: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (alternate)
The Theory of Everything took the golden globe, and 6 of the last 7 winners there also won here. A year after the very different Gravity score wins, Theory brings it back to traditional film music, and gorgeous music at that. The music is tangible, and almost feels like a side character in the film at times.
Plus, the biggest competition is from the masterful Alexandre Desplat, but he very well may split his vote between his 2 nominations. Since the category went to five nominees decades and decades ago, 12 times has a composer been honored with 2 nominations here in the same here. 11 of those times....they lost. The only exception was John Williams with Star Wars (also Close Encounters that year). That does not bode well for Mr. Desplat. He will definitely get his Oscar(s)....just not this year.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
WILL WIN: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy
WINNER: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
The Grand Budapest should ride it's Best Pic nominee status to a win here. Plus, the character and old-age makeup work are FANTASTIC. It's my prediction and I'm sticking to it. That said, if I had a ballot, I would 150% be voting for Guardians. I heard someone say it was just a bunch of people with different colored skin....seriously? Look closer! The intricate detailed work is INCREDIBLE.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Should Win: Interstellar
WILL WIN: INTERSTELLAR
Alternate: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
WINNER: INTERSTELLAR (correct)
My first instinct was to go with Apes here, and I still feel it's a good bet to make, but if they didn't award the first film here, I have a slight hesitation to think they'll do it think time around. All 5 films are worthy nominees, and I wouldn't be surprise to here ANY of them called out. But, with 5 nominations, maybe they'll want to give something to Interstellar, which totally deserves it, if not for the space scenes alone.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Should Win: American Sniper
WILL WIN: AMERICAN SNIPER
Alternate: Birdman
WINNER: AMERICAN SNIPER (correct)
BEST SOUND MIXING
Should Win: American Sniper
WILL WIN: WHIPLASH
Alternate: American Sniper
WINNER: WHIPLASH (correct)
Action vs. music. Action vs. music. Action vs. music.......War movies usually do well here (Black Hawk Down, The Hurt Locker), and I have a feeling that I might be calling this one wrong, and Sniper will end up with both sound categories, but I can't deny the Academy's love for good movie music. The finale scene alone is enough to make plenty of people check the Whiplash box. Plus...they may want to reward the film somewhere else besides J.K. Simmons. Guessing the tally will be split between the 2 categories.
As an outside option, if the night starts going Birdman's way....it could take both of these categories as well, very easily.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WILL WIN: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alternate: Into the Woods
WINNER: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
Could be another case of both design categories going to one film. The garb of Into the Woods is magical in it's way, but Colleen Atwood does already have 3 Oscars, so that so hurt the musical. Again, Mr. Turner....gorgeous.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WILL WIN: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alternate: Mr. Turner
WINNER: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (correct)
While they may not be the most beautiful (but they are in their own way), certainly the most memorable scenery of the year is found in the Grand Budapest. The fact that it feels fresh while at the same time absolutely inhabiting the "feel" of a Wes Anderson film gives extra brownie points. The sets and world of Mr. Turner is breathtakingly beautiful as well. If enough people popped in that screener, it could be a surprise winner.
BEST FILM EDITING
Should Win: Boyhood
WILL WIN: BOYHOOD
Alternate: American Sniper
WINNER: WHIPLASH (missed)
A big category to watch. It's an absolute horse race. The only film I don't really see in a dead-heat is The Imitation Game. Even with the long running time, the 12-year story of Boyhood flows pretty seamlessly through that time, and since editing quite often goes to a Best Picture frontrunner, I'm going with it here. American Sniper and Whiplash are both STRONG contenders as well, and wouldn't be any surprise as winners.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win: Birdman
WILL WIN: BIRDMAN
Alternate: Mr. Turner
WINNER: BIRDMAN (correct)
Even though there are some strong, worthy contenders, the biggest talk about Birdman besides the performances is with the camerawork. Lubezki should take home his 2nd Oscar in any many years, after winning last year for Gravity. Is there anything with a camera this guy can't do???
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Should Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
WILL WIN: HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2
Alternate: Big Hero 6
WINNER: BIG HERO 6 (alternate)
When the nominations snubbed The Lego Movie, it was goodbye to the absolute frontrunner. Dreamworks hasn't won in this category since the very first year the category existed! (Shrek, 2001). Technically they produced Wallace & Gromit in 05, but I don't count that. After cleaning up at the Annie Awards, How to Train Your Dragon 2 should fly in to collect this one. Big Hero 6 never seemed to quite find a sure foot in the race, Boxtrolls is Laika's least praised film to date, and I can't see either of the foreign language films pulling an upset, nomatter how good they are.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Whiplash
WILL WIN: THE IMITATION GAME
Alternate: Whiplash
WINNER: THE IMITATION GAME (correct)
The best place to award Imitation Game is here. Although, I can honestly say that barring a shocking Inherent Vice win, I could see any of the other nominees winning here and it wouldn't surprise me. Particularly Whiplash, which scored a nod even after the category switching by the Academy. It could also be a way to award the first time writer/director Damien Chazelle. But despite all that, I don't think they'll want to send Imitation Game home emptyhanded, and this is a great place to reward a strong film.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WILL WIN: THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Alternate: Birdman
WINNER: BIRDMAN (alternate)
A tough 3-horse race between Birdman, Boyhood (which could both easily win), and my choice, Grand Budapest. Wes Anderson will take home his overdue writing Oscar, on his third nominated script (after Royal Tenenbaums and Moonrise Kingdom). It's also the best chance to reward the film in the major categories. I'm very tempted to say Birdman here, but the Bafta & WGA wins make me think Budapest will pull thru.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win: Keira Knightley - "The Imitation Game"
WILL WIN: PATRICIA ARQUETTE - "BOYHOOD"
Alternate: Keira Knightley - "The Imitation Game"
WINNER: PATRICIA ARQUETTE - "BOYHOOD" (correct)
Locked up acting category #1. Patricia Arquette will ride the Boyhood train all the way to the stage. She's won EVERYTHING leading up to this...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win: J.K. Simmons - "Whiplash"
WILL WIN: J.K. SIMMONS - "WHIPLASH"
Alternate: Edward Norton - "Birdman"
WINNER: J.K. SIMMONS - "WHIPLASH" (correct)
Locked up acting category #2. Another case of winning everything in the lead up, and while Norton is fantastic in Birdman, the competition just never quite caught up this year. Great character actor for decades. Here's...your...Oscar....Bum, Bud-e-um, Bum, Bum, Bum, Bum.
BEST ACTRESS
Should Win: Rosamund Pike - "Gone Girl"
WILL WIN: JULIANNE MOORE - "STILL ALICE"
Alternate: Reese Witherspoon - "Wild"
WINNER: JULIANNE MOORE - 'STILL ALICE" (correct)
Done deal. Locked up acting category #3. Julianne Moore will finally be an Oscar winner, on her 5th nomination.
BEST ACTOR
Should Win: Michael Keaton - "Birdman"
WILL WIN: EDDIE REDMAYNE - "THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING"
Alternate: Michael Keaton - "Birdman"
WINNER: EDDIE REDMAYNE - "THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING" (correct)
I desperately want to put Keaton here, but after Redmayne took the SAG and BAFTA, I just can't do it. I had him predicted until literally this morning, but I gotta go head over heart on this one, even if it comes back to haunt me. No one can say that Redmayne's performance isn't worthy enough, but then again so is Keaton. And who knows, if Sniper lives up to it's surprise love, could Cooper actually swing in and take this one a la Adrien Brody in 2002? Stranger things have happened.
BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win: Richard Linklater - "Boyhood"
WILL WIN: RICHARD LINKLATER - "BOYHOOD"
Alternate: Alejandro G. Inarritu - "Birdman"
WINNER: ALEJANDRO G. INARRITU - "BIRDMAN" (alternate)
Going against the DGA grain here, even though Inarittu won that prize and that prize is insanely predictable. Birdman is an absolute director's vision film, which tilts the scales, but Boyhood is more seen as a passionate project. Something that had never been attempted before, call it a gimmick or not. And Linklater pulled it off. He's well loved in the industry, and I think he JUST squeaks out a win here. But wouldn't shock at all if Inarittu takes home the statue. One of the closest, toughest races of the year.
BEST PICTURE
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
WILL WIN: BOYHOOD
Alternate: Birdman
WINNER: BIRDMAN (alternate)
Again, it really comes down to Boyhood vs Birdman....unless a vote split brings the crowd-pleaser and money-maker Sniper into play??!! The Academy loves films that are about Hollywood and the art of performance/creation (see The Artist, Argo, etc..) and that gives Birdman a big push. But, without the amazing camerawork, will it be seen as merely a good play? Again, Boyhood is a passion project, and the type of film that turns the camera around and points it at everyone else in everyday life in everywhere, U.S.A. So even though I think this one might come back to bite me....I'm sticking with my original gut decision and saying the Academy will follow Bafta's lead, and Linklater wins his 2nd Oscar of the night, this one for Best Picture.
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