THE OSCAR BEACHHOUSE BLOG: February 2012

Picture: THE ARTIST (correct)
Director: MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS - "THE ARTIST" (correct)
Actor: JEAN DUJARDIN - "THE ARTIST" (correct)
Actress: MERYL STREEP - "THE IRON LADY" (alternate)
Supporting Actor: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - "BEGINNERS" (correct)
Supporting Actress: OCTAVIA SPENCER - "THE HELP" (correct)
Original Screenplay: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (correct)
Adapted Screenplay: THE DESCENDANTS (correct)
Animated Feature: RANGO (correct)
Cinematography: HUGO (missed)
Film Editing: THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (missed)
Art Direction: HUGO (correct)
Costume Design: THE ARTIST (correct)
Sound Mixing: HUGO (correct)
Sound Editing: HUGO (correct)
Visual Effects: HUGO (alternate)
Makeup: THE IRON LADY (correct)
Original Score: THE ARTIST (correct)
Original Song: "MAN OR MUPPET" - THE MUPPETS (correct)
Foreign Language Film: A SEPARATION (correct)
Documentary Feature: UNDEFEATED (alternate)
Documentary Short: SAVING FACE (correct)
Live Action Short: THE SHORE (correct)
Animated Short: THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE (correct)

19 of 24 predicting correctly.
3 alternate choices correct.
2 categories missed.

And that wraps up another year of Oscars...The Artist and Hugo both take home 5 Awards, The Iron Lady takes 2, and all other films take 1...5 of the 9 films up for Best Picture take home at least 1 award, while Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, and War Horse get shut out.

Maybe some further analysis later, but for now, it's almost 3 in the morning. I'm going to bed. Goodnight ya'll!

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Should win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
WILL WIN: THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE
Alternate: La Luna

WINNER: THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE (correct)

Flying Books is the clear favorite, but that sometimes doesn't mean a thing. It's the most eye-popping, and most moving, however, and that should mean something. La Luna is also beautiful, and also Pixar-based (it will play before this year's "Brave"). Also possibly is A Morning Stroll, and wonderful time-based piece. But I'm sticking with Flying Books.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Should win: The Shore
WILL WIN: THE SHORE
Alternate: Tuba Atlantic

WINNER: THE SHORE (correct)

Tuba Atlantic is probably the front-runner, but my favorite was Terry George's "The Shore". It stars Ciaran Hinds, and tells the story of two friends reunited after a 25-year spat. The other spoiler is Raju.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Should win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
WILL WIN: SAVING FACE
Alternate: God Is the Bigger Elvis

WINNER: SAVING FACE (correct)

My favs here are Tsunami and Bigger Elvis, but the front-runner is Saving Face, about acid-attacks on women in Pakistan and their struggle to move on after. If they Academy feels nostalgic, watch for God is the Bigger Elvis, a wonderful film about Dolores Hart, who abandoned her film career at the age of 23, to become a nun.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should win: Pina
WILL WIN: PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
Alternate: Undefeated

WINNER: UNDEFEATED (alternate)

Paradise Lost 3 has the be the front-runner, but in all honestly, I wouldn't mind a win by it, Pina, or Undefeated. All 3 films are wonderful, and would be worthy winners. Even Hell and Back Again would be a decent choice. If they wanna vote "artistic", it'll be Pina. "Happy and emotional", will be Undefeated. But Paradise Lost has already made a difference in the lives of it's subject. That can't be discounted.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should win: A Separation

WILL WIN: A SEPARATION

Alternate: In Darkness

WINNER: A SEPARATION (correct)

A Separation is the clear front-runner, having won more prizes than all the rest of the nominees combined. But tell that to Amelie, Pan's Labyrinth, The Class, Waltz With Bashir, to name a few. The biggest potential spoiler is Poland's "In Darkness", one of the best Holocaust-themed films to come out in many years.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Should win: "Man or Muppet"
WILL WIN: "MAN OR MUPPET"
Alternate: "Real in Rio" (duh)

WINNER: "MAN OR MUPPET" - THE MUPPETS (correct)

The downfall of this category makes me sad. But come on, how can The Muppets not win??? It's a 50/50 shot, and the coin-flip is....

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should win: War Horse
WILL WIN: THE ARTIST
Alternate: War Horse

WINNER: THE ARTIST (correct)

My personal favorite is War Horse, but the fact that The Artist is silent gives it the edge, even with all the negative press about the section of Herrmann's "Vertigo" score throw in there, the main thing you hear during the entire film, is the score. And it's wonderful. John Williams is deserving, but he has a big chance of splitting his votes between his 2 films.

BEST MAKEUP
Should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
WILL WIN: THE IRON LADY
Alternate: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

WINNER: THE IRON LADY (correct)

Everyone seems to think this is a race between Iron Lady and Albert Nobbs, but my brain can't get the Potter work out of it! Besides the cuts, bruises, etc..., did everyone forget about the amazing Goblin work early in the film? Apparently. This might be HP's best chance at an award, and considering that no film, in the series, ever, has won, an Oscar, this is it's last chance.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Should win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
WILL WIN: RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Alternate: Hugo

WINNER: HUGO (alternate)

If Hugo starts to ride through the night, it could take the prize here. But the motion-capture work in Apes is groundbreakingly good, so I gotta stay with it. Wouldn't mind a Harry Potter win either.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Should win: Drive
WILL WIN: HUGO
Alternate: War Horse

WINNER: HUGO (correct)

BEST SOUND MIXING
Should win: War Horse
WILL WIN: HUGO
Alternate: War Horse

WINNER: HUGO (correct)

Both sound categories should come down to Hugo vs. War Horse. It's a tough call on both. A split between the 2 wouldn't surprise me at all, and in that case, I think War Horse is more likely to win the Sound Editing category. Although the moments that stayed with me from WH weren't necessarily the loud, war moments. They were more the quiet ones. I liked WH more than most, it seems, but I also adored Hugo. If there isn't a split, I'm guessing that Hugo, the nomination-count leader, takes then both. When you check one off, you normally check it both categories.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should win: Hugo, Jane Eyre, or Anonymous
WILL WIN: THE ARTIST
Alternate: Hugo

WINNER: THE ARTIST (correct)

My favorite costumes are from Hugo, with Anonymous being just behind. But there isn't anything super-duper flashy this year. And while it's hard to appreciate costumes in a black-and-white film, there's no denying the time period based on what you see. And it's there's anything Oscar-voters like in their costumes, it's proper period work.

BEST ART DIRECTION
Should win: Hugo

WILL WIN: HUGO

Alternate: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

WINNER: HUGO (correct)

Hugo has this sewn up. Unless Harry Potter makes a surprise visit to the podium as a "full series" win. But Hugo is practically a lock, imho.

BEST FILM EDITING
Should win: Moneyball

WILL WIN: THE ARTIST

Alternate: Hugo

WINNER: THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (missed)

Film Editing normally matches up with Best Picture. Normally. (See last year: Social Network wins editing and loses Pic) But I don't see any one film being strong enough to take the award away from The Artist. Unless they go for something completely left-field, like the worthy Dragon Tattoo. I also loved the editing of Moneyball. For a completely dialogue-based film, that thing moved so swiftly. And while Hugo has a shot (go Thelma!), especially with the jumps in time, I think the overall length of the movie will detract a bit for the win.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should win: The Tree of Life or War Horse

WILL WIN: THE TREE OF LIFE

Alternate: The Artist

WINNER: HUGO (missed)

Tough, tough, tough category. Emmanuel Lubezki has been snubbed a win before (Children of Men back in 06), but his work in The Tree of Life can't be denied. Even detractors of the film can't bring themselves to say that it's not beautifully shot. And the picture & director nods give the film enough presence to warrant the win here. That said, if The Artist starts to steamroll the evening, it could sweep up a win here. After all, the Academy does love them some good black-and-white.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Should win: Rango

WILL WIN: RANGO

Alternate: Kung Fu Panda 2

WINNER: RANGO (correct)

Didn't see A Cat in Paris and/or Chico & Rita? Yeah, never did most of the Academy members. Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots are both fun, worthy, and entertaining...but they're no Rango. It's taken home the lion's share of the awards this year, and with Tintin snubbed here, it should be smooth sailing from the desert to the stage.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should win: Moneyball

WILL WIN: THE DESCENDANTS

Alternate: Moneyball

WINNER: THE DESCENDANTS (correct)

This is really a 3-horse race. Moneyball seemed to pull ahead early, but has since waned a bit. Maybe the Academy doesn't wanna award Aaron Sorkin 2 years in a row? It's shouldn't matter, cause the script for Moneyball is brilliant, but it does. Politics. If they choose to go for the "single writer", which they HAVE been doing more recently, then John Logan stands a chance for Hugo. But with the support of the WGA, and several other big awards, this will be the category where they award my personal favorite film of the year, The Descendants. It's also a consolation prize for Picture & Director for Alexander Payne, who also co-wrote the screenplay.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should win: Midnight in Paris

WILL WIN: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

Alternate: The Artist

WINNER: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (correct)

Woody Allen hasn't won an Oscar since 1986's "Hannah and Her Sisters". This is his 9th nomination for screenplay since that time. And "Midnight in Paris" is also up for Picture, Director, and Art Direction. It's time for him. Even the huge fans of The Artist can't say that the screenplay for Midnight is magical.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should win: Berenice Bejo - "The Artist"

WILL WIN: OCTAVIA SPENCER - "THE HELP"

Alternate: Berenice Bejo - "The Artist"

WINNER: OCTAVIA SPENCER - "THE HELP" (correct)

Spencer is not quite as locked as Mo'Nique was 2 years ago...but she's close. The only possibly threat I see would be a WTF win for Melissa McCarthy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should win: Kenneth Branagh - "My Week with Marilyn"

WILL WIN: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - "BEGINNERS"

Alternate: Max Von Sydow - "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

WINNER: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - "BEGINNERS" (correct)

It's turned into a battle of the wise old men in this category. While my personal favorite is Branagh here, he doesn't really have a huge shot at it. It'll be either Plummer or Von Sydow. Since he's won almost everything leading up to it, you gotta go Plummer. And he'll be the oldest winner of all time, and it'll cap a career that's over 50 years young.

BEST ACTRESS
Should win: Michelle Williams - "My Week with Marilyn"

WILL WIN: VIOLA DAVIS - "THE HELP"

Alternate: Meryl Streep - "The Iron Lady"

WINNER: MERYL STREEP - "THE IRON LADY" (alternate)

The race at this point boils down to Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. Michelle Williams peaked too early in the season, taking several of the early awards. Mara is just happy to be invited. And Glenn Close never really took off with support. Many think Meryl will take this, and she very well could. It HAS been almost 30 years since she won, after all, but even those who love her performance, don't seem to love the movie itself. And that's why I gotta go with Davis. She nails her first lead role, and everyone in Hollywood seems to love her.

BEST ACTOR
Should win: Jean Dujardin - "The Artist"

WILL WIN: JEAN DUJARDIN - "THE ARTIST"

Alternate: George Clooney - "The Descendants"

WINNER: JEAN DUJARDIN - "THE ARTIST" (correct)

This one really comes down to a 2-man race between Clooney and Dujardin, with Brad Pitt bringing up the rear as a possible 3rd-place finisher. Bichir and Oldman were both fantastic, and both earned their first career nods, and that's all the prize they'll get. I'm going with Dujardin for a few reasons. #1 - As the love and support for the film has grown, so has the love and support for him. #2 - He (like Clooney), took home a Globe, but (unlike Clooney), also has taken home both the Bafta AND most importantly the SAG award as well. The last time the SAG winner lost the Oscar? Way back in 2003, when Johnny Depp won the SAG for Pirates.
Although...Clooney could still win...hehe...

BEST DIRECTOR
Should win: Michel Hazanavicius - "The Artist"

WILL WIN: MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS - "THE ARTIST"

Alternate: Martin Scorsese - "Hugo"

WINNER: MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS - "THE ARTIST" (correct)

Just like in the Best Picture category, you gotta go with the most lauded director of the year, Michel Hazanavicius. Had Martin Scorsese not won only a few years ago for "The Departed", I would say this race would be closer. And it still is close. But the award here will be given to Michel not only for his direction, but also for complete work on the film, which is also wrote, and edited. It's a all-around job. The other nominees got their prize already with the nomination, and nobody but Scorsese could even be called a potential spoiler at this point.

BEST PICTURE
Should win: The Descendants

WILL WIN: THE ARTIST

Alternate: Hugo

WINNER: THE ARTIST (correct)

The only question here is my mind is not WILL The Artist win, it's HOW MANY will The Artist win. I'm predicting 6 total. It's steamrolled it's way through the awards season, picking up trophies at almost every stop, including the Globes, BAFTA, PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice. It'll join "Wings" as only the 2nd silent film to win, 83 years after the original ceremony. The competition is worthy, but there just isn't enough consensus for any one film to overtake it. The non-Artist voters will split between Hugo, The Help, and The Descendants mostly. But in this voting system of ranking 1-9, it's having your film at or near the top of the most ballots that wins.