Here we are again. Now in the...10th year I'll been officially doing this, and it all comes down to tomorrow's announcement. May I just say that this year has been quite the hard one to fill out. It feels like in almost every category we have a full locks, and the rest is a turkey shoot. I mean in literally EVERY CATEGORY. Last year, between my picks and my alternates, I got 99/106 correct. I'm hoping for the best, but have absolutely no feeling that I'm going to come anywhere close to that. But that's what makes every new film season fun, entertaining, and frustrating. There's always those few films that either give too much credit, or not enough. There's always surprises, always snubs, and always great races. So here we go. My predictions for the 84th Oscars, for the year of 2011.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The shortlist of finalists left off several of the most popular choices with the critics this year, mainly "Cave of Forgotten Dreams" and "Page One: Inside the New York Times". Sad to see them left on the shelf, but we deal with what we have. A few choices have sorta, kinda surged to the lead, but really, this is anyone's guess. This is only the 2nd year I'm predicting this category.
Predictions
Buck
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Project Nim
Undefeated
Alternates
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
We Were Here
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Again, in this category, we have several films left off the finalist list, including previously recognized released from Brazil, China, France, and most surprisingly, "Le Havre" from Finland, "Where Do We Go Now" from Lebanon, and "Miss Bala" from Mexico. Although it kinda feels like this year's race may be already sewn up, who knows what will happen. The front-runner, by a mile, is "A Separation" from Iran. It's picked up more awards than the other films I'm predicting, COMBINED. "Pina", out of Germany, is also a film I'm predicting in Documentary as well, so it should find a home here as well, as it's one of the best of the year in both races. Poland's "In Darkness" has made waves as well.
Predictions
Bullhead - Iran
Footnote - Israel
In Darkness - Poland
Pina - Germany
A Separation - Iran
Alternates
Monsieur Lazhar
Warriors of the Rainbow
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Always one of the toughest to predict since there's very little to go on. I feel "The Muppets" should score at least one if not two nods here (since that's the max allowed). Also, turns from several music stars, including Elton John & Sinead O'Connor, should also find themselves in the mix.
Predictions
"Hello Hello" - Gnomeo & Juliet
"Lay Your Head Down" - Albert Nobbs
"Life's a Happy Song" - The Muppets
"The Living Proof" - The Help
"Man or Muppet" - The Muppets
Alternates
"Coeur Volant" - Hugo
"Pictures in My Head" - The Muppets
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
I feel pretty secure in a few of these choices, mainly The Artist, War Horse, and Hugo. After that, it gets a little fuzzier. Alexandre Desplat had not 1 but 2 great scores this year, with both the final Harry Potter film, and his work on Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. And after their victory last year for Social Network, could Ross & Reznor find themselves invited to the show again? Their work in Dragon Tattoo is certainly good enough. Also, Alberto Iglesias' work in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is some of the best of the year, albeit some of the most understated at times.
Predictions
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
War Horse
Alternates
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
BEST MAKEUP
With the finalist list of 7 released from the Academy, there are only a few films that still stand a chance here. Although I must point out that this has been one of my weakest categories predicting for about 3 years running. Hopefully I can turn that around this year. The HP series has never been recognized here, but from all the injury wounds, plus the Voldemort and Goblin work, here's hoping. The Hugo tidal wave could carry it thru here, and in a battle between two leading lady films with The Iron Lady and Albert Nobbs, I'm sticking my neck out and saying that they cancel each other out, leaving another tech nod available for The Artist. But who knows? Even Gainsbourg has a good shot.
Predictions
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Alternates
Albert Nobbs
The Iron Lady
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Tough to narrow this category down from the finalist list, but I feel that Harry Potter, Hugo, and Apes are all safe. Then it gets tougher. The work in the latest Transformers was, imo, far better than the 2nd film, where it missed out. And the visual effects society surprisingly (but deservedly), went with Pirates 4 in their main category. Although this could mean that the effects in Captain America, Mission Impossible, X-Men, and Tree of Life may be shut out. Honestly, nothing showing up here would surprise me too much.
Predictions
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Alternates
Captain America: The First Avenger
The Tree of Life
BEST SOUND EDITING
Another very difficult category to predict, without the widespread range in precursor awards. Also, maybe times (but not always), it matches up decently well with the Sound Mixing category. After finding a home in both Foley and ADR categories with the Sound Editors Guild (MPSE), I think that Apes, Super 8, and War Horse should settle in here. This might also be a place to award a nod to two of the most entertaining action movies of the year, Mission Impossible and Fast Five. Although many other choices wait in the wings for their chance as well, including Drive and Dragon Tattoo.
Predictions
Fast Five
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
War Horse
Alternates
Drive
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
BEST SOUND MIXING
Sometimes this category and sound editing match up almost perfectly. Sometimes they're way off. This here, I'm going with something in the middle. Hanna scored a surprise and very deserved nod from the CAS. And though HP and War Horse didn't, they have showed up on almost every precursor sound category so far.
Predictions
Hanna
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Super 8
War Horse
Alternates
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
This year's race should be dominated by period films. The harder part is deciding which ones. The Artist should ride it's momentum to a nod here, as should the Parisian work of Hugo. The Help's southern period dress could also appear here, the only tech category I'm predicting it in. My Week with Marilyn showed up in several precursors, but missed with the CDG. And in a battle of English history, Jane Eyre's garb has been the most awarded, over it's also-deserving competition of Anonymous and W.E. If the Academy chooses to go for fantasy, both Pirates and Harry Potter could find a surprise nod here too. Not one of the easier categories to predict this year.
Predictions
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
Alternates
Anonymous
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
BEST ART DIRECTION
If there is one nomination, in any category, that I feel most secure about, it is Dante Ferretti's work in Hugo for art direction. It is the one to beat this year. This is another category however that feels very wide open in it's possibilities. Series films such as Harry Potter and Pirates have shown up here in the past, and very well could again. Especially Potter, in my opinion, due to the immense Hogwarts battle scenes. The Artist, like Hugo, brings back memories of a long lost time in Hollywood, partly to it's art direction. The rest is really a crap shoot.
Predictions
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Alternates
Anonymous
Midnight in Paris
BEST FILM EDITING
One of the most important categories, as films that fail to land a nod here practically never had a realistic shot to win Best Picture, even if they nominated for the big one. Although they do like to throw in deserving nods here as sometimes consolation prizes (Collateral in 04, Almost Famous in 00, Memento in 01, Bourne and Diving Bell in 07). In fact, the last film to be nominated here and NOT for Best Picture, was The Dark Knight back in 08, so it's been a few years of Best Picture domination in this category. That said, I'm giving 4 of the 5 slots to also predicted Picture nominees, and going out on a limb with 1 other. No guts, no glory, possible failure.
Predictions
The Artist
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse
Alternates
The Descendants
Moneyball
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
To me it really feels like there are only 6 or 7 real possibilities here, unless something comes completely out of left field to stead a nod. The Artist, Hugo, and The Tree of Life seemed locked and loaded. Dragon Tattoo seems like a good bet after scoring with the ASC, so there's only 1 spot left. Could be Drive, could be Tinker Tailor (also an ASC nominee), but I'm going with the sweeping and poetic camerawork of Janusz Kaminski for War Horse. Whether you like the film or not (and I did), you can't deny that it looks like a visual poem.
Predictions
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Alternates
Drive
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Enough films were released this year for us to have 5 nominees, which always makes me happy, as I'm really just a huge kid and love animation. After taking both the Globe and the Producers Guild, Spielberg, Jackson & company should score a nod here with Tintin. Although...could they protest the motion capture technique and snub it? Rango brought a new twist to a classic homage western, and both Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots continued the story of their franchises, to admirable results. The last spot for me in the hardest. Arthur Christmas was the best reviewed, and scored a nod with BAFTA. Cars 2 missing would make it the first Pixar EVER to miss a nod here, since the category's inception back in 2001. Quite a run. And a classic made a triumphant return to the screen with this year's traditional animation Winnie the Pooh. And if they want to award something left fields (like Secret of Kells 2 years ago), we could here A Cat in Paris or more likely Chico & Rita called out. Tough category.
Predictions
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Alternates
Cars 2
Winnie the Pooh
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
4 of these choices seem like done and done choices. Moneyball, Descendants, and Hugo have shown up on winner lists again and again, and The Help has been right behind them. Again, the hard part is picking the last one. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo scores a WGA nod, and Tinker Tailor snatched a Bafta look here, with one of the best spy stories in years. Then you have the quick dialogue of The Ides of March (another Clooney nod?), and the most overlookedly but worthy A Dangerous Method. And then, finally, you have the schmaltzy, but heart tugging War Horse. My head says Dragon Tattoo, my heart goes to the horse...by a nose.
Predictions
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
Alternates
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist and Midnight in Paris are locks here, and the easiest to call. The huge guild support and big box-office of Bridesmaids could help it find a home here. And the good reviews for 50/50 make it a very possible contender for a nod. But this category is CROWDED, with no less than 5 more worthy films besides those already mentioned, including Mike Mills brilliant Beginners, J.C. Chandor's debut Margin Call, Diablo Cody's Young Adult, and Tom McCarthy's equally brilliant Win Win. But, in a nod to a film that won't likely show up anyway else other than Foreign Film, I'm going with the Iranian drama A Separation, which has taken home several awards in this category this year.
Predictions
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Alternates
Win Win
Young Adult
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Let me say this now. Berenice Bejo's work in The Artist is brilliant, is award-worthy, and is a CO-LEAD. But that said, she will find a spot here instead. The Help will very likely be the newest film in the club of having 2 nominees in the same acting category. Octavia Spencer has snatched up several big prizes already, and Jessica Chastain's amazing year (no less than 4 amazing performances) should be rewarded here as well, as long as she doesn't cancel each other out. Janet McTeer was a nominee back in 1999, and hasn't been in the race since, but if the Academy goes for Albert Nobbs, she could easily find herself nominated here. As could Carey Mulligan, who was fantastic in both Drive and Shame. But she was just nominated 2 years ago. Too much, too young, too soon? Melissa McCarthy has been a standout in the Bridesmaids clan, and she won an Emmy earlier this year, so she's still riding her wave of popularity. And though she's waned as of late in the awards race, I think the admiration for The Descendants could bring the very deserving Shailene Woodley back into the race, and make here the latest Clooney co-star to be nominated alongside.
Predictions
Berenice Bejo - "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain - "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy - "Bridesmaids"
Octavia Spencer - "The Help"
Shailene Woodley - "The Descendants"
Alternates
Janet McTeer - "Albert Nobbs"
Carey Mulligan - "Shame"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Very confident in 3 of these choices, those being Branagh, Brooks, and Plummer. Then is gets rough. I never ever thought I would type this sentence, but Jonah Hill might be an Oscar nominee. That is just weird to me, although I thought he was very good in Moneyball. And while I wouldn't mind hearing Nick Nolte's name announced for Warrior (one of the best films this year that not many people saw), I'm throwing out a No Guts, No Glory call for Patton Oswalt in Young Adult. He is the glue that held that film, and the hot mess of Charlize Theron's character in it, together. Also, did you catch his speech at the Critics Choice? Hilarious.
Predictions
Kenneth Branagh - "My Week with Marilyn"
Albert Brooks - "Drive"
Jonah Hill - "Moneyball"
Patton Oswalt - "Young Adult"
Christopher Plummer - "Beginners"
Alternates
Armie Hammer - "J. Edgar"
Nick Nolte - "Warrior"
BEST ACTRESS
Another case of confidence in 3 choices, as Streep, Davis, and Williams are locks. But this is the most crowded of all the acting categories. The list of worthy choices goes on and on, and contains everyone from Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene, to Charlize Theron for Young Adult. From Rooney Mara for Dragon Tattoo, to Olivia Colman in Tyrannosaur, to Kristen Wiig for Bridesmaids. But I'm rounding out my choices with former winner Tilda Swinton, for her subdued work as the mother of a school-shooting child, and Glenn Close, who should snag her first nod in years as a woman pretending to be a man for work, and life, purposes.
Predictions
Glenn Close - "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis - "The Help"
Meryl Streep - "The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton - "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Michelle Williams - "My Week with Marilyn"
Alternates
Elizabeth Olsen - "Martha Marcy May Marlene"
Charlize Theron - "Young Adult"
BEST ACTOR
Another 3 locks. Clooney and Pitt give career-best performances, and The Artist himself, Jean Dujardin, will dance his way to a nomination. Will the NC-17 rating make voters shy away from Shame, or will it make them watch it even quicker. Either way, if enough people see it, Michael Fassbender's amazing year (4 great performances) should find reward here. Demian Bichir broke my heart in A Better Life, of the best of the year, and DiCaprio is always a possibility, especially teamed up with a director like Clint Eastwood, but after the outpouring of Bafta love for Tinker Tailor, I'm going for another No Guts, No Glory pick and say that Gary Oldman FINALLY captures his first ever nomination. One of the greatest actors to never have heard his name called.
Predictions
George Clooney - "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin - "The Artist"
Michael Fassbender - "Shame"
Gary Oldman - "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt - "Moneyball"
Alternates
Demian Bichir - "A Better Life"
Leonardo DiCaprio - "J. Edgar"
BEST DIRECTOR
I'm going with a 4/5 match from the DGA. Hazanavicius, Payne and Scorsese are locked, locked, locked, and Woody Allen is pretty damn close to it himself for his best film in years, and his biggest box-office film of his career. Then I see it as a close race between 3 men. The Tree of Life is truly a Director's film, and if the Academy sees it that way, Terrence Malick could be around come Oscar time. David Fincher was a surprise DGA nod, but after losing for The Social Network last year, could they try to make it up to him with another nomination? Or will Spielberg find his name called for the 2nd time this year, after his nod for Tintin, with a director nod of his own for War Horse.
Predictions
Woody Allen - "Midnight in Paris"
Michel Hazanavicius - "The Artist"
Alexander Payne - "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese - "Hugo"
Steven Spielberg - "War Horse"
Alternates
David Fincher - "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Terrence Malick - "The Tree of Life"
BEST PICTURE
The hardest part is picking where the cut off line is going to be, as we don't yet have any clue how many films will be chosen this year. If it were 5, I would be more confident. If it were 10, I would be more confident. Could it be either of those? Possible. Not probable, but possible. So, just to shoot for the middle of the road, I'm going with.......8 choices. Artist, Descendants, Help, Hugo, and Midnight would be my picks for just 5. Like I said, the hardest part is finding the cutoff.
Several films made big splashes in the race, and could be a surprise nod, such as Drive & The Tree of Life, but for my 8 choices, I'm going with...
Predictions
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
War Horse
Alternates
Bridesmaids
Drive
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Tree of Life
