FINAL, Last-Minute Predictions!!!

First of all, I think it's awesome that we actually have a RACE this year, so many categories. The past two years have seemed a bit boring, with No Country and Slumdog taking everything in sight, but this year, the strength of Hurt Locker and Avatar, not to mention the wild card Basterds, have proved for an awesome and entertaining year.

That said, time to get down to business. As always, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong in a WHOLE BUNCH of these, and would love to see a few surprises pop up, but here we go...

BEST PICTURE
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: THE HURT LOCKER
Alternate: Avatar

I think it's great that maybe the hardest category to predict is the big one!!! Avatar is the juggernaut that it deserves to be, the highest-grossing film of all time, and we all know how much Hollywood respects and follows the $$$, but after wins with the PGA, the DGA, and the WGA, not to mention the BAFTA, my heart still has to say The Hurt Locker, which was my #1 film of the year. Head says Avatar, heart says Hurt Locker. I'm sticking with the heart.

BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow "The Hurt Locker"
Will Win: KATHRYN BIGELOW "THE HURT LOCKER"
Alternate: James Cameron "Avatar"

History will be made as Bigelow will become the first woman to win Best Director is history. Even her closest competition, James Cameron, is rooting for her.

BEST ACTOR
Should Win: Jeff Bridges "Crazy Heart"
Will Win: JEFF BRIDGES "CRAZY HEART"
Alternate: Colin Firth "A Single Man"

I'm still not convinced that his is the best performance of the year. But the reason he makes my will pick AND my should pick, is the fact that it's his 5th nomination, he's never won, and he's one of the most loved and respected actors around.

BEST ACTRESS
Should Win: Carey Mulligan "An Education"
Will Win: SANDRA BULLOCK "THE BLIND SIDE"
Alternate: Meryl Streep "Julie & Julia"

After taking victories at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG awards, I can't see how Bullock loses this. It's 2000 all over again. Did Julia Roberts deserve to win that year? No. But she's loved in Hollywood and it was her time to shine. This year is Sandra's. Although, a win for Meryl Streep isn't completely out of the cards either. I think it's the better performance of the two, and it's been 27 years since her last win!!!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win: Christoph Waltz "Inglourious Basterds"
Will Win: CHRISTOPH WALTZ "INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS"
Alternate: Woody Harrelson "The Messenger"

One of the 2 easiest calls of the night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win: Anna Kendrick "Up in the Air"
Will Win: MO'NIQUE "PRECIOUS"
Alternate: Anna Kendrick "Up in the Air"

The other of the 2 easiest calls of the night.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Alternate: The Hurt Locker

This, on the other hand, is one of the hardest calls of the night. In a neck-and-neck race between The Hurt Locker, and Basterds, I'm going with my gut and saying Basterds takes it, as a consolation prize for Quentin Tarantino. In the Oscar scene for the first time since 94's Pulp Fiction, Tarantino writes like nobody else can. Although, watch out for The Hurt Locker. If it starts a sweep of the evening, this award should follow suit.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should win: Up in the Air
Will Win: UP IN THE AIR
Alternate: Precious

Up in the Air has taken this award at almost every possible opportunity this year. It'll follow suit at the Oscars, and it'll be the consolation prize for the film.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Should Win: Up
Will Win: UP
Alternate: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Fantastic Mr. Fox is a wonderful film, and is leaps and bounds above the other 3 nominees, but Up, which it's 5 nominations, including only the 2nd ever for an animated film for Best Picture, puts it in the head of the competition.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: THE HURT LOCKER
Alternate: Avatar

Maybe the hardest race all night. In reality, Harry Potter is the only film that I honestly can't see winning this, although it's nomination is totally deserving. The White Ribbon took the ASC top prize, but may fall back with the total Academy voting. Avatar, Hurt Locker, Basterds again in a 3-way race, and I can see any of them winning.

BEST FILM EDITING
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: THE HURT LOCKER
Alternate: Avatar

Same as last category. Avatar/Locker/Basterds in a 3-way race. Notice a pattern yet?

BEST ART DIRECTION
Should Win: Avatar
Will Win: AVATAR
Alternate: Sherlock Holmes

The only thing that could stop Avatar here is if too many voters dislike it's computer-generated designs, but more than enough shouldn't mind, and will just admire how freaking beautiful it is to look at.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Should Win: The Young Victoria
Will Win: THE YOUNG VICTORIA
Alternate: Nine

Royalty should take this crown for the 4th year in a row, after 06's Marie Antoinette, 07's Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and 08's The Duchess. Doesn't hurt that the designer is 2-time winner Sandy Powell, maybe the best costume designer working today.

BEST SOUND
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Will Win: AVATAR
Alternate: The Hurt Locker

Even though Locker took the CAS award, I think the Avatar should get enough broad Academy votes to take this one. After all, how often does the loudest film win? That answer would be quite often.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Should Win: Avatar
Will Win: AVATAR
Alternate: The Hurt Locker

Will they split the sound awards like they did last year? It's possible, but I'm gonna go with a no on this one.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Should Win: Avatar
Will Win: AVATAR
Alternate: Star Trek

Avatar. Avatar. Avatar. Avatar. Avatar. In case you didn't get that, Avatar. And FYI, I still think this category needs to also be stretched to 5 nominees in future year. The effects work has gotten just too good to limit it to 3.

BEST MAKEUP
Should win: Star Trek
Will Win: STAR TREK
Alternate: The Young Victoria

It's very possible the Victoria could squeak out a win here with it's wonderful period makeup, and I can't see Il Divo making much of an impact here, even though it's surprise nod is deserving as well. But Star Trek was one of the biggest films of the year, and probably didn't miss out on a Best Picture nod by too many votes, so they'll honor it where they can.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Should Win: Up
Will Win: UP
Alternate: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Michael Giacchino's score for Up is by far the most memorable for the year, and has won several big awards already.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Should Win: "The Weary Kind"
Will Win: "THE WEARY KIND"
Alternate: "Down in New Orleans"

Thank God we don't have to sit through terrible performance at this year's telecast. But I don't see how "The Weary Kind" loses this one, as T-Bone Burnett and Ryan Bingham should take home the prize, while Randy Newman's 2 nominations should cancel each other out.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should Win: Un Prophete
Will Win: THE WHITE RIBBON
Alternate: El Secreto de Sus Ojos

Another extremely difficult 3-way race. I can realistically see any of the these 3 films taking the prize. Up until a few weeks ago, this race was between Un Prophete and The White Ribbon. But the night might end up being a repeat of last year, when The Class and Waltz With Bashir were considered the front-runners, but then Departures swept in and took the prize at the last second. That could very easily happen this year with El Secreto from Argentina. Many other prognasticators are predicting it. I'm sticking with The White Ribbon.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Should Win: The Cove
Will Win: THE COVE
Alternate: Food, Inc.

The Cove just barely missed my top ten of the year list, and has taken most of the big documentary prizes of the season. I can't see it realistically not winning here, unless the voting committee for some unknown reason just couldn't sit through it.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Should Win: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Will Win: THE LAST TRUCK: CLOSING OF A GM PLANT
Alternate: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

It's difficult subjects at home and abroad in this category. But with the current economy, the success of "Up in the Air", and just the general mood of the country, I think Last Truck might squeeze by here. The only other choice is Music by Prudence. Possibly, but not likely.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Should Win: The New Tenants
Will Win: THE DOOR
Alternate: Kavi

The dialogue of New Tenants is easily the strongest in the field, and the storyline of Kavi and it's subject of a boy born into Slavery in modern-day India is a real heart-tugger, but I'm going with The Door. It's images are haunting, and it's power transcends it's running time.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Should win: Panorama
Will Win: A MATTER OF LOAF AND DEATH
Alternate: Panorama

Panorama gets my vote, as it's a wonderfully clever send-up of logos, and corporate company mascots, but it's never a good idea to vote against a Wallace & Gromit toon, so I won't.


FULL PREDICTIONS
Picture: THE HURT LOCKER
Director: KATHRYN BIGELOW "THE HURT LOCKER"
Actor: JEFF BRIDGES "CRAZY HEART"
Actress: SANDRA BULLOCK "THE BLIND SIDE"
Supporting Actor: CHRISTOPH WALTZ "INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS"
Supporting Actress: MO'NIQUE "PRECIOUS"
Original Screenplay: INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Adapted Screenplay: UP IN THE AIR
Animated Feature: UP
Cinematography: THE HURT LOCKER
Film Editing: THE HURT LOCKER
Art Direction: AVATAR
Costume Design: THE YOUNG VICTORIA
Sound Mixing: AVATAR
Sound Editing: AVATAR
Visual Effects: AVATAR
Makeup: STAR TREK
Original Score: UP
Original Song: "THE WEARY KIND" -- CRAZY HEART
Foreign Language Film: THE WHITE RIBBON
Documentary Feature: THE COVE
Documentary Short Subject: THE LAST TRUCK: CLOSING OF A GM PLANT
Live-Action Short Film: THE DOOR
Animated Short Film: A MATTER OF LOAF AND DEATH